Adam Jones: Offensive Savior?

Many experts and knowledgeable Orioles fans believed that this was the year that Adam Jones finally launched himself onto the level of baseball star.

While I do not believe that Jones is a star, I do believe that Jones is a very, very good player and has carried the Orioles offense this season.

Jones currently leads the team in almost every offense category and carries an Offensive Wins-Above -Replacement (OWAR) of 3.7. His 3.7 OWAR currently ranks 9^th in the Major Leagues.

Who knows where the Orioles would be without Adam Jones this season. Yes, he may still have some things to improve on, i.e. walks and his defense, but he has been the player that has been carrying the Orioles on his back.

However, if the Orioles want to keep up their winning ways, they need other players to step up and help Jones lead the Orioles to the playoffs.

Jones is one of the main reasons why the Orioles are currently tied for the American League Wild Card.

Without the successful season that Adam has been having, who knows where the Orioles offense would be right now, and who knows where the O’s would be in the standings.

Fun With PITCHf/x for Hitters

Recently Dan Brooks of Brooks Baseball fame and Baseball Prospectus teamed up to supply some pitchf/x data for hitters in  really unique way on the Baseball Prospectus website.  Dan is constantly adding functionality to the application, and his most recent update has some pretty cool implications for understanding the data behind batter performance.  This post is going to highlight a lot of the really cool visualizations that this new tool allows us to create.

Adam Jones

This first breakdown compares Adam Jones' True Average on breaking balls down & away versus his True Average on those same pitches this season.  Keep in mind that the typical Small Sample Size (SSS) warning applies here, but it's interesting nonetheless.  For a description of True Average check out Baseball Prospectus' glossary here.

Adam Jones TAv Career - Normalized for RHH

Adam Jones TAv 2012 - Normalized for RHH

The interesting point here is that, over his career, Jones has performed well below average on breaking balls down & away compared to other MLB right-handed batters.  However, so far this season, Jones' performance has been above league average (.260) in all 4 quadrants of the low and away portion of the zone.  This is certainly interesting, and could be a reason for Jones' success thus far this season.

Chris Davis

Here we're going to look at how pitchers have been pitching to Chris Davis so far this season, something that I think shows how well pitchers adjust to hitters over the course of a season.  The first image will show, compared to other left-handed hitters how often Davis sees "hard pitches" (fastballs) in a certain zone.  The second image shows Davis' True Average over the various zones against "hard pitches".

Chris Davis Frequency 2012 - Normalized for LHH & "Hard Pitches"

Chris Davis TAv 2012 - Normalized for LHH & "Hard Pitches"

As you can see, the league has adjusted.  Davis sees many more hard pitches, basically fastballs of various types, up in the zone compared to other lefties.  Consequently, hard pitches down in the zone, typically a staple for many pitchers, are not being seen by Davis.  This is likely because of his performance on those pitches, as exhibited by the True Average image above.  Davis has multiple zones where his TAv is significantly above the league average figure of .260.

Nick Markakis

The last player we'll analyze today is another long-time Oriole, Nick Markakis.  The interesting thing about Nick's data is that it seems nobody knows where to pitch Nick.  The lowest % in terms of pitch frequency is 85.63% which is quite high.  The second image shows how Nick has performed against pitches in the various zones, and highlights the lack of a hole in the zone for the most part.

Nick Markakis Frequency Career - Normalized for LHH

Nick Markakis TAv Career - Normalized for RHH

This color scheme shows just how good Nick has been at covering all zones across the plate.  Of the 25 zones in the breakdown, only 4 of them show TAv values that deviate significantly from the league average figure.

Takeaways

All in all this tool is very cool.  If you haven't already, you should play around with it here and see if you can find any interesting data.  I hope to do more of this in the future, and I really think the applications for this data are truly endless.  Let me know any interesting points you notice from the graphs above, or feel free to link to new graphs in the comment section.

The Curious Case of Adam Jones

The Future meets The Present

First I want to apologize for my lack of posts recently.  I finally feel like I'm back in the groove, just over a week after getting back from China.  Yesterday was the first time since getting back that I could sit down and watch an entire O's game and chat with the good folks over at the Baltimore Sports and Life Forums.  That said, something hit me while discussing the dominance that is Adam Jones (or @SimplyAJ10) - is he really a top 5 player in the AL?

Dave Cameron wrote an interesting piece last week titled, "Is Adam Jones Pulling a Matt Kemp?" where he talked about the career trajectories of Kemp and Jones as well as his potential future payday.  It's funny because we heard Braves fans essentially bashing Jones all offseason, as they couldn't believe that the O's would balk at an offer of Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado for Jones.  The first note about that trade is that Prado has quietly crushed this season to a triple slash of .316/.392/.481 while putting up 2.3 WAR.  Jurrjens has been apocalyptically bad posting a -.5 WAR before being demoted.

This basis of Duquette's refusal was presumably the potential of Jones, knowing that any day now he had the ability to become one of the best in the game.  Well, Duquette (and those who panned the proposal) look pretty good now, given the emergence of Jones as a star.

I ran across one funny note yesterday.  Jones has produced 2.8 fWAR (WAR as calculated by fangraphs) so far this season, just .1 WAR below his career high.  He's currently on pace to put up a WAR figure above 8 to be conservative (assuming he keeps up similar production) which would have landed him among the top 10 hitters last season.  One reason for this tremendous turnaround in WAR production might be a result of Jones' UZR figures beginning to match the eye test for Jones' ability.  Jones has a career UZR of -9.2, but this season has put up a respectable 4.6 Ultimate Zone Rating.  I should note that quoting 43 games worth of UZR data is essentially useless as sample sizes need to be around 3 years for reliable figures.  However, UZR's evaluation of Jones as a well below average defender has never passed the sniff test for me.

Jones has benefited from an absurd HR/FB ratio of nearly 27%, almost double his career rate.  However, his Line Drive % is also a career low this year, so the HR numbers will likely slow (he's not a 50 HR guy) but not as much as we might think.  His K rate has also dropped a bit which means that he's making more contact as he's not swinging significantly less than before.  Adam has also stolen 6 bases, half way to his career high of 12.

What does it all mean?  Adam isn't going to keep slugging .602 this season, and won't threaten the 50 HR mark.  However, he does have the potential to hit .295 or so with 30+ HRs, 20 SBs and above average defense in CF.  That makes him mighty valuable to both the O's and other teams.  The question then becomes: do you trade Adam Jones while his value is high?  Or do you sign him to a long-term deal and hope he can be a cornerstone of the next playoff Oriole team.

As for me, I'd love to see Jones in Orange & Black for many years to come (and not just because I don't want the black Jones jersey I have go unused).  We'd love to hear your opinions in the comment section below about the future of the O's CF.

10 Reasons to Get Excited for 2012

Taking inspiration from David Schoenfield and this article over at ESPN, I've decided to give you ten reasons to be excited for Oriole Baseball in 2012.  Hope you enjoy it, and I'd love to hear your reasons for excitement in the comments section below.  Also, I will be heading up to Rochester this weekend, and as such we'll have Chad and a guest post or two covering the beginning of the season.  Enjoy!

10. Celebrate 20 Years of OPACY 
If you've somehow missed it - this is kind of a big deal.  I've been to a handful of OPACY clones including my second favorite MLB stadium AT&T Park in San Francisco.  However, nothing feels quite as magical as standing out on Eutaw Street in the shadow of the warehouse.  The smell of Boog's in the air and the sounds of batting practice are what dreams are made of.  Whether you like sitting up in the upper deck, behind the dugouts or out in centerfield, Camden Yards is a premier sports venue.  Yeah, #2 in the world according to ESPN, that's right.

9. Mark Reynolds and the Elusive HR
Mark Reynolds hit 37 Home Runs last year.  The last time an Oriole hit 37 Home Runs was Albert Belle in 1999.  It really has been a long time since Baltimore had a true power bat in its lineup.  Now I'm not suggesting that the strikeouts don't matter.  I'm just saying, when he takes that big swing and connects, the ball soaring towards the bullpens.  It's a sight to see.

8. What Will Chen & Wada Bring?
The Orioles dipped into Dan Duquette's extensive connections in Asia this offseason by signing both guys out of the NPB this offseason.  The O's hope that both can contribute to the club.  The question is whether that will be from the rotation or the bullpen or possibly both.  Personally, I'm really excited about Chen.  O's fans bashed the team for signing Uehara rather than Kawakami, and we all saw how that turned out.  Let's see if the Orioles found some hidden gems again.

7. The Old Bird
We discussed the history of the bird way back in November, and the cartoon bird has yet to make its presence known in regular season games.  It will be great to see the O's represent the city and the old Orioles teams with their uniforms this year.  I know it's not the biggest thing in the world, but it just never felt right to not have the cartoon bird.

6. Brian Matusz's(Hopeful)Resurgence
I'm not going to say I Told You So... but... Matusz has been looking good.  IF his luck regresses to the mean a bit, IF his fastball stays up in the lower to mid 90s as it has through spring Training, IF he continues to showcase solid control, then he might just return to the Matusz of old.  Matusz was drafted 4th overall and was a top prospect in baseball.  I'm betting he turns it around, and any O's fan should want to be there to see it.

5. @SimplyAJ10
Adam Jones is one of the more entertaining Oriole players, not to mention one of the best.  The O's starting CF might be around for years to come.  Then again, he might be gone by August.  Moral of the story - enjoy him and his bubble-blowing antics while you can.  Adam plays the game the way we all would if we could - like the little kid inside of all of us would.  Nobody makes the game of baseball look more fun than Adam Jones.

4. Playing Spoiler
Let's be honest.  I'm not counting down to: 1. Playoffs!.  Last year I went to the last game of the season, Orioles vs. Red Sox, wearing an O's hat, Longoria jersey, and O's shorts.  Was there some sort of tangible benefit to sending the Rays to the playoffs as opposed to the Red Sox.  Well, not that I know of yet (unless the Sox implode after this offseason).  You know what I did thoroughly enjoy though?  Playing the spoiler.  Seeing O's fans get pumped about kicking a rival out of the playoffs.  Seeing the look of Ortiz's face sitting in the dugout after Crawford bobbled the ball.  I'll never forget that night, even though it had literally no impact on the Orioles season.

3. Food at OPACY
I'll just leave these here (courtesy of Darren Rovell):

 That would be a "Crab Mac & Cheese Dog". 

This is a crabcake on top of a hamburger.

2. Matt Wieters Blossoming

I'm going to throw out some quick stats here:

A. .249/.319/.377 with 11 HRs

B. .262/.328/.450 with 22 HRs

A is Matt Wieters in 2010, while B is Wieters in 2011.  Note the improvement.  For real analysis on Wieters, read our analysis here.  I'll sum this up with this: Wieters is one heck of a catcher, the type of guy you build a franchise around.  He's fun to watch behind the plate.

1. Baltimore is a Baseball Town

If you read this article from CBS Baltimore, you would come away with the understanding that Baltimore is and forever will be a Raven's town.  You know something though?  Camden Yards finished second to the Skydome in Attendance from 1990 to 1999 with 27,321,449 fans.  The kicker?  Camden Yards was only open for 8 of those 10 years unlike many of the other stadiums (including the skydome).  When the Orioles made a run at things in the late 90s, Baltimore was the best baseball town in the country.  One day, we'll all get to see what it was like.  Today only the die-hard fans show that fervor, but a night at the yard is still one of the best things you can do in Baltimore.

Where do the O's go now?

Many O's fans were frustrated by the O's seemingly tepid interest in the Prince Fielder pursuit this offseason.  However, upon hearing the terms of his contract with Detroit, cooler heads prevailed and O's fans realized that they should thank Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette for not signing him.  That said, it does leave a hole in the heart of O's fans, as yet another offseason has passed without a major addition (so far at least).  This leaves O's fans with the following question:  What now?

To me, the O's have 2 likely directions to go (assuming we've learned anything from the past 14 years or so).  Let's tackle the better of the two options first.

Best Case Scenario

In 2012 some of the O's young pitchers show some growth and development, and give the team something to move forward from.  Young hitters continue to show annual improvement and dispel some of the critics they've had throughout their young careers.  Wieters has improved every year, and Jones has shown he's a premium talent in CF (especially if you don't put a lot of faith into his UZR ratings, which I don't).
Young guys like Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, Parker Bridwell, etc. continue to develop and are beginning to push their way into the conversation.

Heading into 2013 the O's peruse the Free Agent market and make attempts to sign impact players.  Cole Hamels and Zach Greinke are the most likely 'Aces' to be available as Matt Cain is almost assured a contract extension in San Francisco.  Perhaps Hamels and Greinke aren't cost-effective for the club and they begin to pursue potential trades.  Targets could include Tim Lincecum or Felix Hernandez, but would more likely be for younger, up-and-coming pitchers with a few years of control left.  Hitters are also an area where the team could improve, and targets could include David Wright (who could be a FA pending an option) or Joey Votto.

If the O's follow this plan to success, and some suggest this might be the path they take, it very well could follow the path that other teams like the Rangers have taken.  However, this is no slam dunk by any means, and things could go very very differently.

Worst Case Scenario


2012 is merely 2011 rehashed, and the O's young stars continue hinting that they'll never become the stars O's fans had hoped for.  Guys like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta don't develop as the organization would like and the team realizes competing in the stacked AL East, even with an extra wildcard isn't likely.

Unfortunately for O's fans, stories like this will become all too common.  The organization, realizing the window to compete comes further in the future, will have to maximize its return on the young players and get a new bunch of prospects to give it another go.  This new group will feature Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy, and will likely include stars from trades involving guys like Matusz, Tillman, Jones, Wieters and Hardy.  This is obviously not what O's fans want to see, but it's possible, so you can't ignore it as a possibility.

What's Gonna Happen?


Honestly I think it will be a little bit of both.  Some of the young guys like Wieters and Jones have show that they are developing each year and getting better.  Others have struggled.  I think that the team can put itself in position to fight for a wild card spot in 2013 or 2014 if a few things break the right way and the front office continues to try to improve the player development department.  It's not going to be easy, but the O's have young impact players, and that's the best place to start.

Some Orioles Updates

The Orioles have made a few moves over the past few weeks...


- Not the O’s biggest move, but they agreed to a 1-year-deal, worth $1.5MM with OF Endy Chavez. Also, Chavez (pictured above) can earn up to $500K in bonuses. He will be used either in a platoon with LF Nolan Reimold or will backup CF Adam Jones.

- On December 14th, the O’s signed Japanese starting pitcher Tsuyoshi Wada. Wada agreed to a two-year-deal, worth $8.15MM with club option for 2014, where he would earn $5MM.

- On December 12th, the O’s non-tendered OF/DH Luke Scott, RHP Willie Eyre, and LHP Jo-Jo Reyes. Eyre was designated for assignment a week earlier. However, none of these non-tenders were surprising.

- On December 8th, The Orioles traded minor leaguers to the Los Angeles Dodgers for LHP Dana Eveland. . He is going to be able to compete for a rotation spot with the O’s.

Some Rumors…

- OF Coco Crisp is reportedly close to signing with a team, but it has not yet been revealed who the team is. The Orioles have been talking to him the past few days and are interested in signing him. We should find out who Crisp signs with in the next few days.

- A few weeks ago, FOX Sports Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi reported that the Braves and the Orioles had a discussion about Braves SP Jair Jurrjens and IF/OF Martin Prado. However, the Braves would never be expected to trade both of them in same deal. It is also reported that GM Dan Duquette asked for two of the Braves top pitching prospects as well.

- After agreeing to terms with SP Tsuyoshi Wada, it was reported that the O’s are interested in another Japanese SP Wei-Yin Chen. Chen is only 26-years-old and will also cost more than Wada. Dan Duquette has been very active in the international market and is also apparently interested in starter Hishashi Iwakuma.

- Besides the international starters, the O’s seem to be interested in SP Joe Saunders. Saunders was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks this off-season and is reportedly seeking a multi-year deal.

- When it comes to current Orioles Jim Johnson and Brad Bergesen, Dan Duquette said that Buck Showalter will decide in the spring if they will be a part of the rotation or the bullpen. However, MASN writer Roch Kubatko believes he could end up being the O’s closer in 2012.

- The O’s appear to be monitoring the market for Prince Fielder, but they should not be considered a favorite to land him. It is also reported that the Orioles will not go over 8-years for Fielder.


More updates will come as the off-season comes to a close...

The Trade That Didn't Happen

We've all heard the rumors at this point, the Braves and Orioles discussed a trade that would send Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado (along with prospects) to Baltimore for O's CF Adam Jones.  An earlier post here on Warehouse Worthy discussed Jones' contract situation, and as it stands, the O's are not going to lose Adam just yet.  So let's break down this trade, and why the O's might want to trade Adam.

The Trade

Jones is one of the most talented and valuable players on the Orioles' roster, which is why teams without a long-term answer in CF (or even LF) would be interested in Jones.  The Braves reportedly offered Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado and a prospect (likely a lower level prospect) for Jones, an offer that many Braves fans (and baseball fans in general) thought the O's should have taken.  Reportedly, the Orioles countered by asking for 2 of the Braves top 5 pitching prospects along with the pair of major leaguers.  The Braves, understandable, balked at this proposal, and talks have cooled for now.

What We'd Get

Jurrjens posted a solid, though injury marred season last year with a 2.96 ERA (despite a 3.99 FIP).  There are 2 issues for Jurrjens, and that is 1. that he only strikes out 5.33 batters per 9 innings, and 2. he struggles with injuries, throwing over 200 IP just once in his career.

Prado had a solid season hitting .260/.302/.385 and can competently play several IF and OF positions.  Prado was hurt last season, and is expected to bounce back somewhat in 2012 if he doesn't get injured again.  It is obvious that these 2 players would provide value to the Orioles, but would not likely be a part of the O's next winning team.

Getting them would likely require more trades in the future to find players that will be on the O's next playoff team.  This obviously hurts their value to the Orioles, as these players don't math up with Baltimore's needs.  Not to mention that some question how effective Jurrjens would be in the AL East, given his propensity for pitching to contact.

Duquette's Rebuttal

Dan Duquette supposedly countered asking for 2 of the Braves top 5 pitching prospects, including Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado.  I really like this counter offer, as the O's are not currently facing the potential loss of Jones to free agency.  It's fine to listen to offers, but at this point, the team would have to be blown away to trade one of their stars.  Jones holds immense value for both his potential and his production, and the O's either need to lock him up or get a massive haul back for him.  There's no other option at this point for the team.

In case you're feeling nostalgic, here's a look at what you'd be missing if Jones was traded:

Adam Jones' Contract Situation

Is he blowing a bubble mid-dive?  I'm not even mad, I'm impressed.

Let's start with a quick analysis of Adam Jones' raw monetary value to the Orioles according to Fangraphs.  Jones accumulated 2.9 WAR last season which is worth approximately $13M according to league-wide expenditures and player production.  Jones' actual salary last season was $3.25M meaning he provided the team with nearly $10M in surplus value if you subscribe to this particular method of player valuation.

Jones has 2 years left before hitting free agency after the 2013 season, putting him in the portion of his career where young players often sign extensions with the team they spent their first few years with.  As for next season, Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com projects Jones to receive a raise to $5.8M next season, a figure that seems realistic given his production this past year.

So the question is, what would an extension look like?  Well there are three main options in my opinion.  The first, and least desirable for the O's would be to go the Joey Votto route and sign Jones to a 2 year deal that covered both of his arbitration years.  This would look something like 2 years / $14M and would allow Jones to hit Free Agency on schedule.  The second option is to go year to year with Jones, either going through the arbitration process or signing him to a one year deal each offseason as was done last winter.  The third option (and most preferable) for the O's would be to sign Jones to a longer deal, likely 4 years, allowing him to hit Free Agency 2 years late, in 2015.  A deal of this type would be substantially larger as Jones would likely make significant money in Free Agency.  This might look like 4 years / $50M or something in that ballpark (I could see it being for as little as 40, as much as 55 depending on when the deal is signed).

There's no rush here and the O's have time to make this decision.  Britt Ghiroli of MLB.com has even suggested that the O's wait and possibly trade Jones if they don't see contention in their future.  I don't see that happening, but the contract negotiations with Adam Jones will tell O's fans a lot about how soon Dan Duquette sees the team competing.