Is Zach Britton Back?

Dominating.

That is the only word that can be used to explain Zach Britton’s last four starts.

In his last for outings, Britton is 4-0 with 0.94 ERA and has a K/BB ratio of 29/7. He has also been able to produce at least 10 groundball outs in each of his last four starts.

A big part of Britton’s success is being able to locate his fastball and sinker in the lower-half of the strike zone and the ability of his slider to become an out pitch.

The Blue Jays were absolutely fooled by his slider last night, and were unable to make good contact on any of his fastballs or sinkers.

This is the Zach Britton that Orioles fans were used to seeing in the first half of the 2011 season when Britton was arguably the Orioles best starter until June, when he hit a brick wall (not literally) and ended up on the DL with a strained left shoulder.

But the Britton of the 2011 first-half is back and possibly even better.

While Britton has a still needs to lower his WHIP, 1.44, his strikeout total is starting to increase, going from 5.66 K/9 last season to 7.96 this season.

In his last four starts he has lowered his ERA considerably, going from 6.23 on August 18^th to 4.15 as of September 5th.

Britton just needs to keep attacking hitters the way he has been, using his fastball, sinker, and slider. If he continues being aggressive on the mound and being able to locate his pitches, he will continue his dominant ways.

Britton is an integral part of the Orioles rotation right now and his recent success has helped vault the Orioles into a First Place tie with the ailing Yankees.

Hopefully Zach Britton will be able continue to build upon his recent success against American League hitters, because dominate performances will go a long way in bringing the Orioles the AL East title. 

The answer to if Zach Britton is back is yes. If he continues to pitch like this then he's more than back.

Unfamiliar Territory for an Unexpected Team

It’s September 4^th and the Orioles are 75-59. They are one game out of first place, behind a Yankees team that is having problems with injuries and old-age.

If you were to ask a baseball fan at the beginning of the 2012 MLB season about the possibility of the Orioles making the playoffs, let alone possibly winning the division, I guarantee no one would have said they could make the playoffs. Not even close.

The only people that would believe the Orioles would make the playoffs were the following: Peter Angelos, Peter Angelos again, someone who is experimenting with hard drugs, and that overly-optimistic Orioles fan that says that team will make the playoffs every year.

While many experts and fans alike believed that the Orioles winning ways were all due to luck, it is no such thing as luck anymore.

Maybe it was luck in April, May, and June. But July, August, and September are the months that show which teams are for real. Despite the Orioles being “lucky”, I do not think luck is the case anymore.

While their run differential is -31, it only shows that when the O’s win it is usually in close games and when they lose, they really lose badly.

The main reason for their successful ways is because of their Einsteinian manager Buck Showalter and because their bullpen has been near-lights out the whole season.

However, a team cannot just win with two good qualities. The O’s may have an unstable rotation, but that rotation has won them plenty of games this year, even with the mixing and matching Buck Showalter has had to do. The O’s lineup may be considered average to below-average, but different players throughout the whole year have been able to contribute each and every day.

While the O’s may have a more difficult schedule left than AL East opponents New York and Tampa Bay, going .500 (14-14) still gives the Orioles a great shot of making the playoffs as one of the two Wild Card teams.

If you still don’t believe in the Orioles chances then I’m not sure what to tell you.

They have been proving everyone wrong this season, and can continue to do so for the next month.

The Orioles could end a 15-year playoff drought and I really believe that they can.

The question all O’s fans have been asking is “why not us?”

Why can’t we do it? The Orioles still continue to prove everyone wrong.

A playoff berth would really be “lucky”, wouldn’t it?!

Why Not Us? (#WhyNotUs)

Last night I watched the ESPN 30 for 30 movie about the Boston Red Sox improbable comeback in the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees.  While the stakes were significantly higher for Boston at that point than they are for us now, their motto rings true for O's fans.

Why Not Us?

Baseball is a sport where change is slow, teams must build up organically and players often "regress to the mean".  Unlike any of the other big 4 major US sports, baseball is a game where strategy and planning is vital.  A 162 game season demands teams make hundreds if not thousands of personnel decisions each year.  Dan Duquette, Buck Showalter and the rest of the Oriole staff have continually put this team in a position to succeed this season, and the team has paid them back with wins.  Nobody saw this coming, heck, we had the over/under for the season at 74 wins.  74 wins and we weren't even the low end of the predictions.

So why not us then?  Well, our pitching isn't terribly reliable.  We're hitting Nate McLouth third in our lineup that occasionally features other offensive juggernauts like Omar Quintanilla.  Half the starting lineup at any given point this season was comprised of bench guys, role players, AAAA guys or minor league journeymen.

We've won a completely unsustainable number of 1-run and extra inning games.  If you listen to the industry pundits, our run differential is the most absurd thing they've ever encountered in a winning team.

After 15 years O's fans have begun to expect the team to falter.  Every dip in performance is expected to be the beginning of the end for this fairy tale.  When the team struggled earlier this summer O's fans jumped off the bandwagon because it's not fashionable to support a team like the Orioles.

Our Time

This is our time damnit.  Adam Jones has risen to the level of the elite CF in baseball, and is the superstar that Baltimore and the Orioles have missed since guys named Ripken, Murray, and Robinson gave O's fans something to cheer about.  The young guys like Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, Dylan Bundy and more have fans buzzing about the minor leagues and flocking to the yard to see these kids play.

Wei-Yin Chen has been a huge find for the O's, as has Jason Hammel's resurgence.  Guys like Steve Johnson, Miguel Gonzalez and others have stepped in and filled holes with good starts for the team.  They've battled through injuries and their strong bullpen has given the team 51 wins when they lead after 7 innings.

This team isn't sexy.  This isn't Detroit with their 800 pounds of man hitting 3-4-5.  This isn't the Angels who have the former and current best players in baseball in their lineup everyday.  We're not the Yankees with a $200 Million payroll.  We don't have a reliable rotation like the Nationals or famous owners like the Dodgers.

This Orioles team is fun, and above all else, they win.  I don't know if this team will catch the Yankees and Rays to win the division.  They certainly could, but they might not.  I don't know if this team will beat out the Tigers or White Sox and Angels to get in the wild card this season.  They certainly could, but they might not.

I'm not really worried about the O's making the playoffs this season.  This season has been fun and I'm just trying to take it all in.  Hopefully this is just the beginning of a series of runs into the playoffs for the team, and I'm just glad to be a part of it.  Are you?

There's magic in the air folks.

So Far, So Good

Just a few days ago the Orioles called upon their top position prospect Manny Machado.

Machado, the 3^rd overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft, was called up to play third base for the O’s, a position where he has limited experience.

Scouts were surprised by the early call-up for the 20 year-old Machado, because his numbers in Double-A were sub-par.

So far the call-up of Machado has paid off.  Manny is hitting .417, with 2 HR, and 5 RBI. He has also provided an upgrade on defense from Wilson Betemit.

However, O’s fans should still temper their expectations. It’s not going to be a piece of cake for Manny. There is no doubt that Manny has started off great, but there will be struggles to come. It takes a while to adjust to playing every day in the Major Leagues. Other teams will also make adjustments to Machado, figuring out his weaknesses at the plate (yes, he will have some weaknesses).

I’m not saying that Machado will slump for a long period, but he is human. He will have struggles, but I’m sure he will have many successes.

Machado is going to have an extremely successful career.  But for now limit your expectations. There will be an adjustment period for Manny.

However, the call-up of Manny Machado has brought a new sense of belief to O’s fans. It shows fans that the organization is doing everything it can to put a winning product on the field.

The next two months will be exciting to watch. Hopefully Manny can make a significant contribution to the Orioles playoff run.

The O’s may not be done with big name call-ups. There could be another top prospect called up in September...

 Dylan Bundy?!

Adam Jones: Offensive Savior?

Many experts and knowledgeable Orioles fans believed that this was the year that Adam Jones finally launched himself onto the level of baseball star.

While I do not believe that Jones is a star, I do believe that Jones is a very, very good player and has carried the Orioles offense this season.

Jones currently leads the team in almost every offense category and carries an Offensive Wins-Above -Replacement (OWAR) of 3.7. His 3.7 OWAR currently ranks 9^th in the Major Leagues.

Who knows where the Orioles would be without Adam Jones this season. Yes, he may still have some things to improve on, i.e. walks and his defense, but he has been the player that has been carrying the Orioles on his back.

However, if the Orioles want to keep up their winning ways, they need other players to step up and help Jones lead the Orioles to the playoffs.

Jones is one of the main reasons why the Orioles are currently tied for the American League Wild Card.

Without the successful season that Adam has been having, who knows where the Orioles offense would be right now, and who knows where the O’s would be in the standings.

Directions to Success

I'm not going to repeat the number.  I know that I don't need to tell you how many years it's been.  That's not why I'm here, and quite frankly, I hope most of you are tired of talking/reading/thinking about it.  What I am here to do though, is pontificate on the next Orioles winning team.  No, you know what, let's get crazy and talk about the next Orioles playoff team.  Let's talk about the directions to success.  (I'm not sure that's the right 'success').

The Situation
It took, on average, 97.8 wins over the past 5 years to win the American League East.  Wow.  Let's be honest with ourselves, the next O's playoff team likely gets in via the wild card.  The average win total for the first Wild Card (WC1) over the past 5 years has been a still impressive 94 wins.  However, there will now be two wild cards, and the average win total for the second Wild Card (WC2) was just 88.6 wins.  Well there's reason for optimism there, as the total number of wins required for the WC2 is more than 5 wins less than WC1.

Who's the competition?  The next O's team to make the playoffs is realistically looking 3 or 4 years down the road.  Assuming that, the roster will likely look very different than it does today.  However, individual players are merely cogs in the system that drafted, developed, traded for and signed them.  Looking at the teams as systems, the major competitors in the American League for the O's time frame are likely to be: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Royals, Indians, Tigers, Rangers, Angels and Mariners.

Don't get me wrong here, I wouldn't be surprised (at all) to see the tigers become less competitive in 2014 and have the Twins become a force to be reckoned with.  I'm just saying that given what we know, these teams seem to be in a strong position going forward (with emphasis on the O's projected timeline).

Your Baltimore Orioles
The O's offense is actually respectable ranking in the middle of the pack of the AL in wOBA and wRC+.  Let's assume Wieters settles in offensively to be slightly better, Machado is everything we expect and the team makes a few moves to fill in holes as they emerge.  This puts the team up in the top 5 range in the AL, plenty good to compete with the better offensive teams.  Not to mention the O's would likely have at least one impact bat just emerging (Jon Schoop) and maybe more.

Where the O's struggle is pitching.  Specifically developing young pitching, and having it stay healthy.  Let's assume Matusz has figured it out (which isn't really a safe assumption until games that matter come around).  I'm not even going to attempt to project the rotation for 2014 or 2015 right now, but let's assume that it features 3 top pitching prospects in Britton, Matusz and Bundy.  These guys will help make up the core of a rotation that, if they all develop as they once were believed to, is pretty darn good.  The rotation could feature young guys with a lot of potential like Parker Bridwell.  It might not.

Changes to 'Our System'

Wei-Yin Chen should probably work on his release point...

This is the area that the O's stand the most to gain from.  The O's have already begun revamping the player development system by introducing a long toss regimen to help strengthen pitcher's arms.  I'm a believer in long toss, and that's honestly a personal decision that you have to make I guess.  All I know is that two things benefited me as a young baseball player.  The first was keeping the same regimen over the length of a season or multiple seasons.  The second was long-tossing.  For me, it built arm strength and reinforced good mechanics.  It's incredibly difficult to long toss with poor mechanics.

Here the O's have made a conscious effort to introduce programs from the top down on both sides of the ball to have continuity across all levels of the system.  Rick Peterson and Mike Boulanger have a lot of work ahead of them but I believe that this overhaul has been long overdue.  Additionally I would be remiss if I didn't mention Brady Anderson and his emphasis on fitness, and the positive impact it will inevitably have on the players coming up through the system.

The Goal
I have an opinion on who the O's should draft when it rolls around later this summer.  In reality though, it doesn't much matter who they draft if he comes into a broken system that can't properly develop players.  I want Bundy, Machado, Schoop and everyone else to succeed.  It is through them that the O's will be successful as they will be the hot shot rookies to Matt Wieters' veteran wisdom.  We know our weaknesses, and we know which teams are likely to be good.  We know what we have in house, and we know where the opportunities are.

It's going to take a lot more than drafting good players to get to 89 wins.  It's going to take a serious focus on player development.  The top prospects of years past (Adam Loewen, Billy Rowell, Daniel Cabrera) haunt this organization.  We can't go back and fix them, so it's about time the O's started making sure that we don't live through the same nightmare twice.  I think they're finally starting to get it.