The Curious Case of Adam Jones

The Future meets The Present

First I want to apologize for my lack of posts recently.  I finally feel like I'm back in the groove, just over a week after getting back from China.  Yesterday was the first time since getting back that I could sit down and watch an entire O's game and chat with the good folks over at the Baltimore Sports and Life Forums.  That said, something hit me while discussing the dominance that is Adam Jones (or @SimplyAJ10) - is he really a top 5 player in the AL?

Dave Cameron wrote an interesting piece last week titled, "Is Adam Jones Pulling a Matt Kemp?" where he talked about the career trajectories of Kemp and Jones as well as his potential future payday.  It's funny because we heard Braves fans essentially bashing Jones all offseason, as they couldn't believe that the O's would balk at an offer of Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado for Jones.  The first note about that trade is that Prado has quietly crushed this season to a triple slash of .316/.392/.481 while putting up 2.3 WAR.  Jurrjens has been apocalyptically bad posting a -.5 WAR before being demoted.

This basis of Duquette's refusal was presumably the potential of Jones, knowing that any day now he had the ability to become one of the best in the game.  Well, Duquette (and those who panned the proposal) look pretty good now, given the emergence of Jones as a star.

I ran across one funny note yesterday.  Jones has produced 2.8 fWAR (WAR as calculated by fangraphs) so far this season, just .1 WAR below his career high.  He's currently on pace to put up a WAR figure above 8 to be conservative (assuming he keeps up similar production) which would have landed him among the top 10 hitters last season.  One reason for this tremendous turnaround in WAR production might be a result of Jones' UZR figures beginning to match the eye test for Jones' ability.  Jones has a career UZR of -9.2, but this season has put up a respectable 4.6 Ultimate Zone Rating.  I should note that quoting 43 games worth of UZR data is essentially useless as sample sizes need to be around 3 years for reliable figures.  However, UZR's evaluation of Jones as a well below average defender has never passed the sniff test for me.

Jones has benefited from an absurd HR/FB ratio of nearly 27%, almost double his career rate.  However, his Line Drive % is also a career low this year, so the HR numbers will likely slow (he's not a 50 HR guy) but not as much as we might think.  His K rate has also dropped a bit which means that he's making more contact as he's not swinging significantly less than before.  Adam has also stolen 6 bases, half way to his career high of 12.

What does it all mean?  Adam isn't going to keep slugging .602 this season, and won't threaten the 50 HR mark.  However, he does have the potential to hit .295 or so with 30+ HRs, 20 SBs and above average defense in CF.  That makes him mighty valuable to both the O's and other teams.  The question then becomes: do you trade Adam Jones while his value is high?  Or do you sign him to a long-term deal and hope he can be a cornerstone of the next playoff Oriole team.

As for me, I'd love to see Jones in Orange & Black for many years to come (and not just because I don't want the black Jones jersey I have go unused).  We'd love to hear your opinions in the comment section below about the future of the O's CF.

Some Orioles Updates

The Orioles have made a few moves over the past few weeks...


- Not the O’s biggest move, but they agreed to a 1-year-deal, worth $1.5MM with OF Endy Chavez. Also, Chavez (pictured above) can earn up to $500K in bonuses. He will be used either in a platoon with LF Nolan Reimold or will backup CF Adam Jones.

- On December 14th, the O’s signed Japanese starting pitcher Tsuyoshi Wada. Wada agreed to a two-year-deal, worth $8.15MM with club option for 2014, where he would earn $5MM.

- On December 12th, the O’s non-tendered OF/DH Luke Scott, RHP Willie Eyre, and LHP Jo-Jo Reyes. Eyre was designated for assignment a week earlier. However, none of these non-tenders were surprising.

- On December 8th, The Orioles traded minor leaguers to the Los Angeles Dodgers for LHP Dana Eveland. . He is going to be able to compete for a rotation spot with the O’s.

Some Rumors…

- OF Coco Crisp is reportedly close to signing with a team, but it has not yet been revealed who the team is. The Orioles have been talking to him the past few days and are interested in signing him. We should find out who Crisp signs with in the next few days.

- A few weeks ago, FOX Sports Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi reported that the Braves and the Orioles had a discussion about Braves SP Jair Jurrjens and IF/OF Martin Prado. However, the Braves would never be expected to trade both of them in same deal. It is also reported that GM Dan Duquette asked for two of the Braves top pitching prospects as well.

- After agreeing to terms with SP Tsuyoshi Wada, it was reported that the O’s are interested in another Japanese SP Wei-Yin Chen. Chen is only 26-years-old and will also cost more than Wada. Dan Duquette has been very active in the international market and is also apparently interested in starter Hishashi Iwakuma.

- Besides the international starters, the O’s seem to be interested in SP Joe Saunders. Saunders was non-tendered by the Diamondbacks this off-season and is reportedly seeking a multi-year deal.

- When it comes to current Orioles Jim Johnson and Brad Bergesen, Dan Duquette said that Buck Showalter will decide in the spring if they will be a part of the rotation or the bullpen. However, MASN writer Roch Kubatko believes he could end up being the O’s closer in 2012.

- The O’s appear to be monitoring the market for Prince Fielder, but they should not be considered a favorite to land him. It is also reported that the Orioles will not go over 8-years for Fielder.


More updates will come as the off-season comes to a close...

The Trade That Didn't Happen

We've all heard the rumors at this point, the Braves and Orioles discussed a trade that would send Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado (along with prospects) to Baltimore for O's CF Adam Jones.  An earlier post here on Warehouse Worthy discussed Jones' contract situation, and as it stands, the O's are not going to lose Adam just yet.  So let's break down this trade, and why the O's might want to trade Adam.

The Trade

Jones is one of the most talented and valuable players on the Orioles' roster, which is why teams without a long-term answer in CF (or even LF) would be interested in Jones.  The Braves reportedly offered Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado and a prospect (likely a lower level prospect) for Jones, an offer that many Braves fans (and baseball fans in general) thought the O's should have taken.  Reportedly, the Orioles countered by asking for 2 of the Braves top 5 pitching prospects along with the pair of major leaguers.  The Braves, understandable, balked at this proposal, and talks have cooled for now.

What We'd Get

Jurrjens posted a solid, though injury marred season last year with a 2.96 ERA (despite a 3.99 FIP).  There are 2 issues for Jurrjens, and that is 1. that he only strikes out 5.33 batters per 9 innings, and 2. he struggles with injuries, throwing over 200 IP just once in his career.

Prado had a solid season hitting .260/.302/.385 and can competently play several IF and OF positions.  Prado was hurt last season, and is expected to bounce back somewhat in 2012 if he doesn't get injured again.  It is obvious that these 2 players would provide value to the Orioles, but would not likely be a part of the O's next winning team.

Getting them would likely require more trades in the future to find players that will be on the O's next playoff team.  This obviously hurts their value to the Orioles, as these players don't math up with Baltimore's needs.  Not to mention that some question how effective Jurrjens would be in the AL East, given his propensity for pitching to contact.

Duquette's Rebuttal

Dan Duquette supposedly countered asking for 2 of the Braves top 5 pitching prospects, including Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado.  I really like this counter offer, as the O's are not currently facing the potential loss of Jones to free agency.  It's fine to listen to offers, but at this point, the team would have to be blown away to trade one of their stars.  Jones holds immense value for both his potential and his production, and the O's either need to lock him up or get a massive haul back for him.  There's no other option at this point for the team.

In case you're feeling nostalgic, here's a look at what you'd be missing if Jones was traded: