So Far, So Good

Just a few days ago the Orioles called upon their top position prospect Manny Machado.

Machado, the 3^rd overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft, was called up to play third base for the O’s, a position where he has limited experience.

Scouts were surprised by the early call-up for the 20 year-old Machado, because his numbers in Double-A were sub-par.

So far the call-up of Machado has paid off.  Manny is hitting .417, with 2 HR, and 5 RBI. He has also provided an upgrade on defense from Wilson Betemit.

However, O’s fans should still temper their expectations. It’s not going to be a piece of cake for Manny. There is no doubt that Manny has started off great, but there will be struggles to come. It takes a while to adjust to playing every day in the Major Leagues. Other teams will also make adjustments to Machado, figuring out his weaknesses at the plate (yes, he will have some weaknesses).

I’m not saying that Machado will slump for a long period, but he is human. He will have struggles, but I’m sure he will have many successes.

Machado is going to have an extremely successful career.  But for now limit your expectations. There will be an adjustment period for Manny.

However, the call-up of Manny Machado has brought a new sense of belief to O’s fans. It shows fans that the organization is doing everything it can to put a winning product on the field.

The next two months will be exciting to watch. Hopefully Manny can make a significant contribution to the Orioles playoff run.

The O’s may not be done with big name call-ups. There could be another top prospect called up in September...

 Dylan Bundy?!

Exploring Trades and What the O’s Should Do

With less than four hours until MLB’s Trade Deadline, the O’s have yet to make a move but are currently engaging in talks with different teams.

The biggest name that the O’s have been targeting so far is SP Joe Blanton of the Philadelphia Phillies. The O’s have been in constant talks with the Phillies the past few days. The biggest issue is that the Phillies want the O’s to pay the rest of the $3M Blanton is owed the rest of the season. However, if the O’s do not want to pay the rest of Blanton’s contract, then the Phillies want a more highly-regarded prospect such as a Jonathan Schoop.

Trading Schoop for two more months of Joe Blanton would be a trade the O’s should never ever make.

With that said, trading prospects is always something teams need to look into before they make the move. Some trades can make or break a franchise.

In this column we will talk about the impact of trading prospects for major leaguers.

There have been a few deals where trading prospects for above-average or average major leaguers have to yet to have a determined outcome.

Take for example one of the trades that the Boston Red Sox made the past off-season.

Boston traded Josh Reddick and two minor leaguers for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney. While Sweeney has done a great job filling in for Boston this season, Reddick has enjoyed a breakout season for Oakland and leads the team in the majority of offensive categories.

The jury is still out on this trade however, because Bailey has been injured, but still has the potential to be a top-5 closer.

Another trade that has yet to be determined is the deal the Reds and Padres made this off-season for Mat Latos. The Reds received SP Mat Latos from San Diego in exchange for C Yasmani Grandal, 1B/OF Yonder Alonso, SP Edinson Volquez, and RP Brad Boxberger. Latos is currently 9-3 for the Reds and is helping lead them to a playoff berth. Grandal recently strained his quad and will likely land on the DL, Alonso has had his ups and downs so far this season, Volquez has been extremely inconsistent, and Boxberger has been dominating Triple-A.

The jury is still out on this trade because five years from now Grandal, Alonso, and Boxberger could be three of the best players on the Friars.

The one thing to notice about these two trades is that they both happened last off-season. Therefore there hasn’t been enough time to judge their impact on each respective team.

It takes at least five years to determine whether a trade was “won” or “lost”.

One trade O’s fans are familiar with is the Erik Bedard trade. This could be considered one of the most lopsided trades in history.

The O’s sent Erik Bedard to the Mariners for OF Adam Jones, SP Chris Tillman, RP George Sherrill, RP Kam Mickolio, and LHP Tony Butler.

Bedard was coming off a career year and was arbitration-eligible for the first time. The O’s sold as high as they could, getting a great haul for the lefty.

Jones had played some for the Mariners, but they were never sure if he would turn out to be the player they envisioned him to be. Tillman was one of the Mariners’ top prospects and had a lot of promise. Sherrill was an older relief pitcher who the Mariners believed was not really needed. Mickolio and Butler were two pitching prospects also added to the deal.

Four years later I don’t think any GM would trade Adam Jones for Erik Bedard. At least I hope not...

It took a few years to develop, but Jones has become one of the premier players in the American League.

Besides the Bedard trade, there are so many more trades that have worked out in the favor of the team getting the prospects.

But back to the Orioles… since this is an Orioles blog and all.

If the Orioles want to trade for an impact player, they have to really think about the risks of doing it.

If the Phillies want Jonathan Schoop for Joe Blanton, we shouldn’t even come close to considering it. Schoop could end up being our future second baseman, while Blanton is a free agent five days after the World Series. I don’t think two months of Blanton is worth five years of control of Jonathan Schoop. Blanton is a homer-prone pitcher, already giving up 22 this year. As one insider said “he’s an above-average Tommy Hunter”.

I would only take Joe Blanton if the Orioles had to send a low-ceiling prospect or future utility-man, as well as the Phillies paying the $3M owed to Blanton.

Besides Blanton, it has been reported that the Orioles have been interested in Phillies OF’s Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, and Juan Pierre.

Victorino and Pence are reportedly on their way out, Victorino going to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pence to the San Francisco Giants.

However, Pierre is still available and would be a good acquisition for the O’s. He will not cost much at all and could play left field and hit lead-off for the Orioles.

There is one thing the Orioles need to try to do at the deadline though and that is upgrade their starting rotation. If they want to continue to stay in the playoff hunt they will need to upgrade their pitching. But to upgrade their pitching they should not trade any of their top prospects.

The main point that the Orioles should stick to is that their top prospects are not available in trade. 

Making a trade that involves their top prospects could possibly help the team now, but what will it do to the team in five years?

If the Orioles do trade in the next four hours or so, they need to really calculate the risks of trading their prospects

Before making any trade, they really need to calculate the pros and cons.

Hopefully the O's can make some upgrades today!

Stayed tuned to Warehouse Worthy for news on O’s acquisitions!

Baltimore Orioles: Trade Deadline Buyers?

Buy/Sell/Hold

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote a piece yesterday breaking down every MLB as either potential buyers, sellers or holders at this year's trade deadline.  He broke down the buyers into two groups: 'likely buyers' and 'buyers' so separate out those firmly entrenched in picking up talent from those who might buy, but might not.

Cameron listed the Orioles as 'likely holders' at the deadline suggesting that despite playing over their heads to this point, they could hope to hold on to veterans with the outside shot at a second wild card spot.  Cameron suggests that teams like the Orioles, Mets or Pirates could benefit greatly from a rare playoff appearance with a 're-energized fanbase'.

Are The O's Buyers?

Many fans certainly want the O's to be buyers at the deadline.  Over the past month or so fans have been clamoring for the home team to go look for a third baseman, starting pitch depth, even an ace to anchor our rotation.  Apparently Dan Duquette said some thing along the lines of, "If we're in it in July we'll be in it to win it. We're out right now taking stock of our minor league system to see what we have to offer teams" prior to the game on Friday June, 8th.  Does this mean the O's are looking to trade?  Who can we get?  Is Garza up for trade?  These, and hundreds of other questions undoubtedly start surfacing looking for ways to push the Orioles into contention.

I don't know what Dan Duquette and the baseball operations team in the warehouse are thinking with regards to trade targets.  If you want an answer for that, try calling up the executive offices and ask the operator to speak to Dan himself.

What I can tell you is what I would do if I were GM - what I think the Orioles should do.

What We Should Do

Recent success in MLB is predicated on developing and bringing up a stream of talented young players that can fill in holes left by veterans.  We're not talking about the Yankees here, the Orioles are not the Yankees and likely never will be.  What the Orioles can be is a middle ground between the Rays and Red Sox.  The model used by Tampa, Texas and Boston to a lesser degree has proven to be successful time and time again.

What exactly is that model you ask?  Fill the farm system with talent, build up a strong core on your roster, and then add pieces to fill in holes as necessary.  This does not require, nor does it preclude you from making splashy free agent signings.  A perfect example is Texas, the best team in baseball the past 2 seasons despite missing out on winning rings.  Texas built up a core of Hamilton, Andrus, Kinsler, Young, Cruz etc by acquiring talent and letting it develop.  Then, when the team was ready to compete they went out and brought in Adrian Beltre to hold down 3B.

The Orioles are starting down this path with promising young players surrounding established young veterans like Wieters and Jones.  The future of Machado, Schoop and Bundy gives the Orioles a core to build around and add to.  This should be the basis of the team going forward.

So Let's Trade For Our Core!

Not so fast.  Trading, especially in a seller's market, will be expensive as Cameron points out.  It will take 2 or 3 top prospects to get a guy like Matt Garza.  Sure, maybe acquiring a guy like him puts us in the playoffs this season, but we won't have guys to call up a year or two from now to add on to our roster.  We'd be trading in long-term sustainable success for one potential playoff appearance.

I know Oriole fans have been waiting way too long for a playoff run.  I know that being patient is hard and knowing we could have made the playoffs if we just made one move is worse.  The fact of the matter is that baseball is getting younger, and the Orioles can't afford to be short-sighted and accept another long stretch of losing for one shot at the postseason.

It's been a long and arduous journey as an Oriole fan, but there's finally a light at the end of the tunnel.  Rather than sprinting to the light and having to stop just outside the exit of the tunnel let's pace ourselves so we can keep running once we break through.

Prospect List Review, Part 3

This is the third and final portion of analysis on the comparison I've done for the three major prospect lists.  I should mention that some other sites have done interesting work compiling data similar to this, so I highly recommend you search that out if this stuff tickles your fancy.

The first two portions can be found here, and will be helpful to understanding the analysis in this post:

Post 1 - 2007

Post 2 - 2008

Once again, the data can be found here (or in excel format by e-mailing us):

Prospect List Review

Anyway, interesting notes about the 2009 prospect list data.  The list contains 130 players, 82 of which have produced a positive WAR to this point in their careers.  However, due to the more recent time frame that this data covers, the average WAR is only 1.91.  Matt LaPorta brings up the rear posting a -1.4 figure, and Andrew McCutchen paces the field producing 12.9 WAR to this point.  So how did the data break down?

The average differences are again in the 30s, with Baseball America leading at 32.30 and Goldstein coming in last at 37.25.  Keith Law, just as in 2008, splits the difference with an average difference between WAR ranking and his list of 34.21.  The 'MISSES' data shows yet another similar story with the 3 lists coming in the same order, ranging from BA's 33% to Goldstein's 42% with Law coming in at 38%.

It starts getting interesting though when you look at the number of times each analyst was closest to the actual rankings in their predictions.  Here Law paces the field at 42.31%, while BA and Goldstein finished with 41.54% and 33.08% respectively.  This is certainly interesting as it is the first time anyone has bested Baseball America's team of analysts in any of the categories.  Breaking it down even further, one can determine that Law simply predicted more players that produced positive WAR as all 3 analysts were similarly accurate (or inaccurate) in predicting which players wouldn't produce.  It should be noted that the difference between Law and BA here is only 1 prospect, so any arguments about the difference being negligible would be valid as well.

In summary we can determine a few things about the overall process of creating a prospect list.  Of the 383 prospects (including repeats) named by each of the sources, 258 or 67.4% have produced a positive WAR to this point in their careers.  That's actually pretty impressive considering the uncertain nature of developing prospects and all the issues I mentioned in the first post of this series.

Additionally, it seems that having more information is better.  Baseball America has a team of evaluators that determine their top 100 through individual ranking, discussion and voting.  Similarly, Keith Law uses his personal evaluations as well as opinions of scouts and executives he trusts around the game.  These approaches seem to give a more fitting view of a prospect, possibly due to The Wisdom of Crowds.

I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions, as well as any takes you had on the data or process.  Let me know in the comments section.  I know there is a lot more to gain from using this data, not to mention much more data to gather.

Prospect List Review, Part 2

Yesterday we started a series reviewing the prospect lists from Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law of ESPN.  For a primer on the language and necessary background, I suggest you read the post from yesterday describing the research.

The data can be found here:

Prospect List Comparison

You can also send us an e-mail at WarehouseWorthy@Gmail.com if you would like a downloadable excel version of the data.

With all that out of the way, let's get on to 2008.


2008 introduces Keith Law's list into the mix resulting in a much larger data set than we had in 2007.  On the other hand, each year we move forward the restrictions of age and injury come into play more significantly.  The players in each successive year are younger and as a result have less major league experience than the previous year's lists.  This explains the 2.5 WAR drop over the average of the two data sets.  This can also be seen through the 52 prospects that either have produced 0 WAR or posted a negative figure to this point in their careers.

Looking at the cumulative data one might notice that once again BA has produced the 'best' list featuring the fewest misses and the largest number of times closest to a prospects actual ranking.  Goldstein once again falls behind with Keith Law falling right between the two.  These figures also hold up when considering the average difference between a prospects actual ranking and their ranking according to each of the 3 sources.  These figures on the whole went up since 2007 as a result of a larger sample.  By adding in a third list, each forecasters' list will inevitably have more guys ranked 125 thus raising the average in the difference column.

One other interesting point to note about 2008 is that all 3 sources were equally good at avoiding 'busts'.  Keith Law lead the group by being the closest at predicting players that have produced 0 WAR or less at 50%.  Kevin Goldstein came in at 48% and BA wrapped up the group at 46%.

Let us know anything you find interesting by mentioning them in the comments.

Tomorrow we'll wrap up this series by looking at 2009.

Part 1           Part 3

Prospect List Review, Part 1

This particular post was inspired by this post and the subsequent discussion from MLBTradeRumors.Com.  Every year, many fans look forward to the top prospects lists to help them understand who the future of their favorite MLB club might be.  This can also cause a lot of confusion though, as the 3 main sources often differ in their opinions on the players.  The 3 main prospect lists can be found here:

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus

Baseball America's Top 100

Keith Law of ESPN

What I've done is go back and look at the top 100 lists from each of these sources from 2007 through 2009. I then used WAR as a measure of MLB success or lack thereof to determine if each source 'hit' or 'missed' on a particular prospect.  However, before getting into the data there are several limitations to doing such objective analysis of these prospect lists.

The first limitation is prospect age.  Some prospects on this list can not be listed as a failed prospect merely because of their career performance thus far.  For example, Domonic Brown, listed on both BA and Keith Law's top 100 lists for 2009 has produced -0.6 WAR thus far in his career.  However, he is by no means a failed prospect.

Injury is another huge limitation to evaluating these lists.  A player might be a top prospect until an injury limits them or even ruins their career entirely.

Prospect mismanagement could also be a huge issue for evaluating a player.  One might argue that this could be the case with Domonic Brown, but it is a factor that is prevalent across baseball.  A player may have immense upside, but his future is heavily dependent on the team for which he plays.

Finally, one must consider limitations in using this analysis to interpret future lists.  One factor is that methodologies change over time.  It is reasonable to believe that in evaluating each crop of prospects each source weighs performance and scouting, as well as upside and proximity to the majors differently.

Those are just a few of the limitations, and there are likely countless more.  When using this data to come to a conclusion one must consider what outside forces are impacting the data, and understand how those impacts influence the interpretation.

That said, let's take a look at 2007.

Prospect List Comparison

Most of the data is pretty self explanatory.  I should mention that a 'MISS' is defined as:

A prospect is on a top 100 list but has failed to provide a positive career WAR to this point.  It could also mean that one of the other lists named a player that produced a positive WAR.  For example, Brandon Wood is a 'MISS' for both BA and Kevin Goldstein as both men had him on their top 100, but he has produced negative WAR thus far.  An example of the other type of 'MISS' would be Elvis Andrus, who was number 65 on BA's list, but went unmentioned by Kevin Goldstein.  To this point in his career Andrus has accumulated 10.1 WAR.

Additionally, the 'Closest' column lists the source that most closely predicted a prospect's performance.  For example, if a prospect ranked 8th in WAR, the list that had him closest to 8th would be named the closest.  For the 'DIFF' columns then allow you to determine just how close their predictions were.  When a prospect was not ranked on a list it was given a default value of 125, resulting in differences greater than 100.

Looking at 2007 from an objective point of view, one would likely come to the conclusion that Baseball America was more accurate overall.  Baseball America missed on only 26% of prospects compared to Goldstein's 32%.  Similarly, Baseball America was the closest to the prospects actual WAR ranking an impressive 60% of the time.  Again, this data could be misleading for a variety of reasons, but it is interesting nonetheless.

Tomorrow I will post Part 2 and discuss 2008.  If you would like the data in excel format (which is significantly more usable/pretty) send an e-mail to WarehouseWorthy@Gmail.com.

Part 2        Part 3

Prospects, Prospects, Prospects

Everyone knows the most important thing in real estate is location, location, location.  Well, the most important thing in baseball is often the prospects.  There is little debate over the best way to build a baseball team these days.  Prospects that come up through the system to the major leagues are cost-controlled and often provide teams with surplus production.  This is the type of production discussed in Michael Lewis' Moneyball, as the A's capitalized on performance during a player's cheapest years.  Consider that last season Matt Wieters provided the O's with $19.2 million dollars worth of production last season despite making only $452,250.

That said, the future of the Orioles sits in the minor leagues.  Keith Law ranked the Orioles right in the middle of the pack in terms of their minor league situation stating:

I see two likely superstars, one more potential superstar with lower probability … and after about seven or eight names, it goes off a cliff.

Manny Machado at the Futures Game

Those likely superstars are Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, and represent the future of the organization.  Jonathan Schoop is another bright spot in the organization, signed out of Curacao when he was 16.  Schoop has played SS, 2B and 3B in his short time in the minors.  O's fans can begin to imagine a potential double play tandem or perhaps a left side of the infield headlined by Schoop and Machado in the future.

Other young guns to look out for are Nicky Delmonico and Jason Esposito from the O's 2011 draft.  Delmonico has a higher upside and Esposito a more likely prospect to develop (which makes sense given that they were drafted out of high school and college respectively).

Dylan Bundy struck out 158 batters in 71 IP

Some pitchers to look out for are Dylan Bundy's brother Bobby, as well as Parker Bridwell.  Both guys made huge strides last season, and could enter the rotation discussion as early as September.  The future for the Orioles will likely rest in the team's ability to continue adding talent to the system, and developing it once it's there.  There's definitely some promise, but the system still has room to grow.

For more on the Orioles prospects, check out our page: Baby Birds.

Updates to the Site

Just a few updates to the site today:

Projected Starting 9

Projected Rotation and Bullpen

Baby Birds

Also, look out for a post later today on the best prospects in the O's minor league system.

The Trade That Didn't Happen

We've all heard the rumors at this point, the Braves and Orioles discussed a trade that would send Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado (along with prospects) to Baltimore for O's CF Adam Jones.  An earlier post here on Warehouse Worthy discussed Jones' contract situation, and as it stands, the O's are not going to lose Adam just yet.  So let's break down this trade, and why the O's might want to trade Adam.

The Trade

Jones is one of the most talented and valuable players on the Orioles' roster, which is why teams without a long-term answer in CF (or even LF) would be interested in Jones.  The Braves reportedly offered Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado and a prospect (likely a lower level prospect) for Jones, an offer that many Braves fans (and baseball fans in general) thought the O's should have taken.  Reportedly, the Orioles countered by asking for 2 of the Braves top 5 pitching prospects along with the pair of major leaguers.  The Braves, understandable, balked at this proposal, and talks have cooled for now.

What We'd Get

Jurrjens posted a solid, though injury marred season last year with a 2.96 ERA (despite a 3.99 FIP).  There are 2 issues for Jurrjens, and that is 1. that he only strikes out 5.33 batters per 9 innings, and 2. he struggles with injuries, throwing over 200 IP just once in his career.

Prado had a solid season hitting .260/.302/.385 and can competently play several IF and OF positions.  Prado was hurt last season, and is expected to bounce back somewhat in 2012 if he doesn't get injured again.  It is obvious that these 2 players would provide value to the Orioles, but would not likely be a part of the O's next winning team.

Getting them would likely require more trades in the future to find players that will be on the O's next playoff team.  This obviously hurts their value to the Orioles, as these players don't math up with Baltimore's needs.  Not to mention that some question how effective Jurrjens would be in the AL East, given his propensity for pitching to contact.

Duquette's Rebuttal

Dan Duquette supposedly countered asking for 2 of the Braves top 5 pitching prospects, including Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado.  I really like this counter offer, as the O's are not currently facing the potential loss of Jones to free agency.  It's fine to listen to offers, but at this point, the team would have to be blown away to trade one of their stars.  Jones holds immense value for both his potential and his production, and the O's either need to lock him up or get a massive haul back for him.  There's no other option at this point for the team.

In case you're feeling nostalgic, here's a look at what you'd be missing if Jones was traded:

Interesting Links

This post may seem like a cop-out, but I promise, a regular post is coming tomorrow.  In the meantime, take a look at some 'experts' thoughts on the Orioles' top prospects for 2012:

Fangraphs

MinorLeagueBall.com

Baseball Prospectus

MLBprospectportal.com

TopProspectAlert.com

BaseballInstinct.com

Also, here's an interesting article from a writer I really admire about the Angels' signing of Pujols.

Jonah Keri on Pujols

Finally, look forward to a post tomorrow, and then sometime next week a more in depth look at O's prospects with the release of the Baseball America Top 10 Prospects list.

Should the O's go after Cespedes?

So far throughout Free Agency the same names have been mentioned: Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and… Yoenis Cespedes.

Yoenis Cespedes (pictured above) is a 26-year-old Cuban outfielder who defected from Cuba to the Dominican Republic this summer. Cespedes’ plan was to finally become a Major League baseball player.

The first thing Cespedes did was send out a promotion video to all 30 MLB teams, a very interesting video to say the least. Here is a link for those of you who haven’t seen it: Cespedes' Showcase (Warning this video contains explicit language).

When it comes to stats, Cespedes has put out some very impressive numbers in his playing career. Since debuting in the Cuban National Series in the 2003-04 season, Cespedes has hit over .300 almost every single year except for 2007-08 season. He also hit 175 home runs in 9 seasons, showing that he clearly has power. Besides hitting, Cespedes has above-average speed, but isn’t known for his stealing ability. In the field Cespedes is an average defender and reports say he has an above average arm.

So far plenty of teams have been interested in the Cuban outfielder. Teams have ranged from the Yankees and Redsox, to teams like the Pirates and the Indians. The Orioles have also expressed interest in Cespedes.

However, the price for Cespedes continues to climb. Reports say it could take $50-60 million to sign him. But should the O’s spend that much money on a player who hasn’t constantly faced major-league competition?

No, the Orioles should not spend that much money on Yoenis Cespedes.

Signing Cespedes would be like signing a player like Mike Cameron. Yes, Cameron was an average to above-average player in his prime, but would he be worth $60 million or more?!?

There is another international prospect that the Orioles should go after though.

19-year-old Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler is not drawing nearly the same amount of attention, but he may be well worth the wait.

Unlike Cespedes, Soler is not major-league ready. Scouts say it will take him 2 or 3 years in the minors, but Soler could turn out to be a better major-league player than Cespedes. Soler is known to have great bat speed and could become a hitter that hits 40 home runs in the major-leagues. Soler will also come a lot cheaper. Soler is expected to get a deal similar to Rangers centerfielder Leonys Martin, who signed a 5-year major-league contract worth $15.5 million.

Soler may not be major-league ready, but he has a ton of raw potential and having a 6’3” frame, he has a ton of potential as a power hitter.

Signing someone like Jorge Soler will be cheaper than spending money on Yoenis Cespedes and Dan Duquette will stick to his word by focusing on more international signing and development of prospects.