What Ails Mark Reynolds

A little over a month ago I took a stab at analyzing some of the Oriole hitters using the Pitch F/x for hitters tool from Baseball Prospectus and Brooks Baseball.  Here's a second go-round with the data, this time looking at everyone's favorite 1B/3B/DH Mark Reynolds:

Mark Reynolds has been well, Mark Reynolds this season with one glaring exception.  In fact, look at these numbers from this year and last year:

As you can see, his numbers this season compare fairly favorably to last year with the exception of one little thing.  Those two numbers out to the right highlight the severe power outage that Reynolds has experienced this season.  A drop of .081 in his SLG and ISO (ISO or isolated power is a component of SLG which is why the numbers match) shows that Reynolds has lost considerable power.  For reference, that's the difference equivalent to 2012 Michael Young (0.79 ISO).

So what is the problem?  Well, it's not his ability to hit fastballs, as you can see below:

2011 ISO vs. Hard Pitches (FB, Sinkers, Cutter, etc.)

2012 ISO vs. Hard Pitches (FB, Sinkers, Cutter, etc.)

While there are some differences in these two depictions, the changes are, in my opinion, nominal and don't explain Reynolds' drop off in power.  The following graphs however, might.  They show Reynolds' ISO on breaking pitches, which is how pitchers have been attacking Reynolds since he came to Baltimore.

2011 ISO vs. Breaking Pitches (Curveball, Slider, etc.)

2012 ISO vs. Breaking Pitches (Curveball, Slider, etc.)

As you can see, Reynolds has been demonstrably worse this season against breaking balls than he was in 2011.  Last year Reynolds was able to cover almost the entire strikezone with breaking balls, meaning pitchers would need him to chase.  However, this season pitchers should have no fear of leaving a breaking ball in the zone, so long as it's not right down the middle.

Reynolds' inability to hit breaking balls for power is definitely something O's fans should watch for as the season comes to a close.  If he improves, then maybe bringing him back in 2013 seems like a good idea.  However, if he continues to struggle against breaking balls then he may never get back to those power numbers he once used to be known for.

10 Reasons to Get Excited for 2012

Taking inspiration from David Schoenfield and this article over at ESPN, I've decided to give you ten reasons to be excited for Oriole Baseball in 2012.  Hope you enjoy it, and I'd love to hear your reasons for excitement in the comments section below.  Also, I will be heading up to Rochester this weekend, and as such we'll have Chad and a guest post or two covering the beginning of the season.  Enjoy!

10. Celebrate 20 Years of OPACY 
If you've somehow missed it - this is kind of a big deal.  I've been to a handful of OPACY clones including my second favorite MLB stadium AT&T Park in San Francisco.  However, nothing feels quite as magical as standing out on Eutaw Street in the shadow of the warehouse.  The smell of Boog's in the air and the sounds of batting practice are what dreams are made of.  Whether you like sitting up in the upper deck, behind the dugouts or out in centerfield, Camden Yards is a premier sports venue.  Yeah, #2 in the world according to ESPN, that's right.

9. Mark Reynolds and the Elusive HR
Mark Reynolds hit 37 Home Runs last year.  The last time an Oriole hit 37 Home Runs was Albert Belle in 1999.  It really has been a long time since Baltimore had a true power bat in its lineup.  Now I'm not suggesting that the strikeouts don't matter.  I'm just saying, when he takes that big swing and connects, the ball soaring towards the bullpens.  It's a sight to see.

8. What Will Chen & Wada Bring?
The Orioles dipped into Dan Duquette's extensive connections in Asia this offseason by signing both guys out of the NPB this offseason.  The O's hope that both can contribute to the club.  The question is whether that will be from the rotation or the bullpen or possibly both.  Personally, I'm really excited about Chen.  O's fans bashed the team for signing Uehara rather than Kawakami, and we all saw how that turned out.  Let's see if the Orioles found some hidden gems again.

7. The Old Bird
We discussed the history of the bird way back in November, and the cartoon bird has yet to make its presence known in regular season games.  It will be great to see the O's represent the city and the old Orioles teams with their uniforms this year.  I know it's not the biggest thing in the world, but it just never felt right to not have the cartoon bird.

6. Brian Matusz's(Hopeful)Resurgence
I'm not going to say I Told You So... but... Matusz has been looking good.  IF his luck regresses to the mean a bit, IF his fastball stays up in the lower to mid 90s as it has through spring Training, IF he continues to showcase solid control, then he might just return to the Matusz of old.  Matusz was drafted 4th overall and was a top prospect in baseball.  I'm betting he turns it around, and any O's fan should want to be there to see it.

5. @SimplyAJ10
Adam Jones is one of the more entertaining Oriole players, not to mention one of the best.  The O's starting CF might be around for years to come.  Then again, he might be gone by August.  Moral of the story - enjoy him and his bubble-blowing antics while you can.  Adam plays the game the way we all would if we could - like the little kid inside of all of us would.  Nobody makes the game of baseball look more fun than Adam Jones.

4. Playing Spoiler
Let's be honest.  I'm not counting down to: 1. Playoffs!.  Last year I went to the last game of the season, Orioles vs. Red Sox, wearing an O's hat, Longoria jersey, and O's shorts.  Was there some sort of tangible benefit to sending the Rays to the playoffs as opposed to the Red Sox.  Well, not that I know of yet (unless the Sox implode after this offseason).  You know what I did thoroughly enjoy though?  Playing the spoiler.  Seeing O's fans get pumped about kicking a rival out of the playoffs.  Seeing the look of Ortiz's face sitting in the dugout after Crawford bobbled the ball.  I'll never forget that night, even though it had literally no impact on the Orioles season.

3. Food at OPACY
I'll just leave these here (courtesy of Darren Rovell):

 That would be a "Crab Mac & Cheese Dog". 

This is a crabcake on top of a hamburger.

2. Matt Wieters Blossoming

I'm going to throw out some quick stats here:

A. .249/.319/.377 with 11 HRs

B. .262/.328/.450 with 22 HRs

A is Matt Wieters in 2010, while B is Wieters in 2011.  Note the improvement.  For real analysis on Wieters, read our analysis here.  I'll sum this up with this: Wieters is one heck of a catcher, the type of guy you build a franchise around.  He's fun to watch behind the plate.

1. Baltimore is a Baseball Town

If you read this article from CBS Baltimore, you would come away with the understanding that Baltimore is and forever will be a Raven's town.  You know something though?  Camden Yards finished second to the Skydome in Attendance from 1990 to 1999 with 27,321,449 fans.  The kicker?  Camden Yards was only open for 8 of those 10 years unlike many of the other stadiums (including the skydome).  When the Orioles made a run at things in the late 90s, Baltimore was the best baseball town in the country.  One day, we'll all get to see what it was like.  Today only the die-hard fans show that fervor, but a night at the yard is still one of the best things you can do in Baltimore.

Great Scott… What should we do?

2010 was a good year for Luke Scott. Scott, 32 at the time, hit a career high 27 home runs and had an average of .284, the highest he had ever had in a full season. Orioles’ fans had high expectations for the Orioles MVP in 2011- maybe 30 home runs or 85 runs batted in?

However, 2011 did not turn out like O’s fans were hoping. Scott only played in 64 games and finished with only nine home runs and 22 runs batted in. The main reason for Scott’s ineffectiveness was because of injuries. A torn labrum hampered Scott for the majority of the season. He underwent season-ending surgery on July 26^th.

So here is the question: Do we tender Luke Scott a contract?

The answer: No. If we tendered him a contract it would be for $6 Million next season. That is a lot of money to give to someone coming off an injury.

However, I do believe we re-negotiate a deal with Scott. Scott himself even said that he was willing to negotiate a deal with the O’s even if they non-tendered him. Bringing in Scott in a one or two-year deal worth about 2 or 3MM a year is a good idea for the Orioles. The least we could do is sign him to an incentive-laden one-year deal.

Yes, I know Scott is a very poor defender in left-field. Scott posted a -0.4 defensive WAR in ’09, -0.1 in ’10, and -0.3 in ’11. Nolan Reimold also has a chance to be the everyday left fielder for good this year. Scott also will turn 34 in 2012 and no one knows how well he will respond from shoulder surgery. These are the only downfalls to bringing Luke Scott back.

There are plenty of reasons to bring Scott back in 2012 though. Scott has potential to be a bounce-back candidate next year. Scott could be a good designated hitter and play a little first base for the O’s. In 2010 he posted a 3.5 offensive WAR. Besides statistics, Scott is a fan-favorite among the O’s and is a good locker-room presence.

The O’s should non-tender him because he will earn $6MM, but they should definitely try to negotiate a contract with him if he is willing to play for less money. Scott could be an everyday DH for the Orioles as well as interchange with Mark Reynolds at first base.