The Worst Pitcher Is...

Tsuyoshi Wada should be coming off the DL soon, and the question is - does he go in the rotation or the bullpen.  Who does he replace on the roster when he comes back?  Well, the easiest way to determine this is to find out who the worst pitcher is so far.  So, let's get to it...

The Nominees

Brian Matusz

Brian has struggled to start the season  despite showing better stuff and an impressive spring, Matusz has struggled this season.  In his first 2 starts, Matusz has gone just 9.2 IP with walk and K rates of 7.45 and 4.66 respectively.  Matusz has been a bit unlucky (like having Kevin Gregg relieve him), exemplified by his BABIP against of .344 and an xFIP nearly 2 runs lower than his ERA.  Matusz has actually pitched better than his numbers indicate, the biggest issue being his lack of control.  If he can figure out why he can't locate his pitches, he could bounce back nicely.  Matusz's stats:

Troy Patton

Patton currently boasts a 7.71 ERA despite being one of the few relievers with a better K/9 ration than his BB/9 ratio.  xFIP is much more kind to Patton as it suggests his ERA should be somewhere 3.50, more than 4 runs lower than his current ERA.  Patton is a candidate for the worst pitcher on only a surface level.  Patton's stats:

Tommy Hunter

Hunter is the opposite of Patton, a pitcher who has pitched significantly worse than his surface level numbers would indicate.  Hunter currently sports a sparkling 2.77 ERA despite FIP and xFIP having him at 7.06 and 4.66 respectively.  Hunter has cost the Orioles .2 wins already this season according to Fangraphs.  The reasons for this?  A miniscule K rate of 3.46 batters per nine innings is an issue to look forward to for the rest of the season.  Similarly, a regression of his current BABIP against of .194 to the mean (currently .279) would likely result in a worse showing by Hunter going forward.  Hunter's stats:

Kevin Gregg

Where should I start?  Gregg walks .82 batters per inning.  That's 7.36 per 9 innings.  Meanwhile he strikes out only .55 batters per inning.  That's troubling.  His 12.27 ERA is slightly inflated (by a .462 BABIP) as FIP and xFIP have him at 9.45 and 8.17 respectively.  To be fair both of those would be absolutely terrible as well, but there's nothing that I've seen from Gregg that makes me believe that .462 BABIP is an aberration.  I think half the readers of this site could get a hit or walk against him right now.  Gregg's stats (sorry):

The Winner Is...

Kevin Gregg.  I REALLY wanted to pick Tommy Hunter who has looked pretty awful despite showing decent numbers (and by that I mean ERA).  I honestly think Matusz and Patton have legitimate reasons to stay where they are, but Hunter and Gregg have been pretty questionable overall.  In reality, I wouldn't be upset if Wada replaced Hunter in the rotation and Hunter moved to the bullpen, banishing Kevin Gregg off to a place where he only ever has to pitch the 9th inning (as that's the biggest cause of his woes thus far according to him).  What do you think?

10 Reasons to Get Excited for 2012

Taking inspiration from David Schoenfield and this article over at ESPN, I've decided to give you ten reasons to be excited for Oriole Baseball in 2012.  Hope you enjoy it, and I'd love to hear your reasons for excitement in the comments section below.  Also, I will be heading up to Rochester this weekend, and as such we'll have Chad and a guest post or two covering the beginning of the season.  Enjoy!

10. Celebrate 20 Years of OPACY 
If you've somehow missed it - this is kind of a big deal.  I've been to a handful of OPACY clones including my second favorite MLB stadium AT&T Park in San Francisco.  However, nothing feels quite as magical as standing out on Eutaw Street in the shadow of the warehouse.  The smell of Boog's in the air and the sounds of batting practice are what dreams are made of.  Whether you like sitting up in the upper deck, behind the dugouts or out in centerfield, Camden Yards is a premier sports venue.  Yeah, #2 in the world according to ESPN, that's right.

9. Mark Reynolds and the Elusive HR
Mark Reynolds hit 37 Home Runs last year.  The last time an Oriole hit 37 Home Runs was Albert Belle in 1999.  It really has been a long time since Baltimore had a true power bat in its lineup.  Now I'm not suggesting that the strikeouts don't matter.  I'm just saying, when he takes that big swing and connects, the ball soaring towards the bullpens.  It's a sight to see.

8. What Will Chen & Wada Bring?
The Orioles dipped into Dan Duquette's extensive connections in Asia this offseason by signing both guys out of the NPB this offseason.  The O's hope that both can contribute to the club.  The question is whether that will be from the rotation or the bullpen or possibly both.  Personally, I'm really excited about Chen.  O's fans bashed the team for signing Uehara rather than Kawakami, and we all saw how that turned out.  Let's see if the Orioles found some hidden gems again.

7. The Old Bird
We discussed the history of the bird way back in November, and the cartoon bird has yet to make its presence known in regular season games.  It will be great to see the O's represent the city and the old Orioles teams with their uniforms this year.  I know it's not the biggest thing in the world, but it just never felt right to not have the cartoon bird.

6. Brian Matusz's(Hopeful)Resurgence
I'm not going to say I Told You So... but... Matusz has been looking good.  IF his luck regresses to the mean a bit, IF his fastball stays up in the lower to mid 90s as it has through spring Training, IF he continues to showcase solid control, then he might just return to the Matusz of old.  Matusz was drafted 4th overall and was a top prospect in baseball.  I'm betting he turns it around, and any O's fan should want to be there to see it.

5. @SimplyAJ10
Adam Jones is one of the more entertaining Oriole players, not to mention one of the best.  The O's starting CF might be around for years to come.  Then again, he might be gone by August.  Moral of the story - enjoy him and his bubble-blowing antics while you can.  Adam plays the game the way we all would if we could - like the little kid inside of all of us would.  Nobody makes the game of baseball look more fun than Adam Jones.

4. Playing Spoiler
Let's be honest.  I'm not counting down to: 1. Playoffs!.  Last year I went to the last game of the season, Orioles vs. Red Sox, wearing an O's hat, Longoria jersey, and O's shorts.  Was there some sort of tangible benefit to sending the Rays to the playoffs as opposed to the Red Sox.  Well, not that I know of yet (unless the Sox implode after this offseason).  You know what I did thoroughly enjoy though?  Playing the spoiler.  Seeing O's fans get pumped about kicking a rival out of the playoffs.  Seeing the look of Ortiz's face sitting in the dugout after Crawford bobbled the ball.  I'll never forget that night, even though it had literally no impact on the Orioles season.

3. Food at OPACY
I'll just leave these here (courtesy of Darren Rovell):

 That would be a "Crab Mac & Cheese Dog". 

This is a crabcake on top of a hamburger.

2. Matt Wieters Blossoming

I'm going to throw out some quick stats here:

A. .249/.319/.377 with 11 HRs

B. .262/.328/.450 with 22 HRs

A is Matt Wieters in 2010, while B is Wieters in 2011.  Note the improvement.  For real analysis on Wieters, read our analysis here.  I'll sum this up with this: Wieters is one heck of a catcher, the type of guy you build a franchise around.  He's fun to watch behind the plate.

1. Baltimore is a Baseball Town

If you read this article from CBS Baltimore, you would come away with the understanding that Baltimore is and forever will be a Raven's town.  You know something though?  Camden Yards finished second to the Skydome in Attendance from 1990 to 1999 with 27,321,449 fans.  The kicker?  Camden Yards was only open for 8 of those 10 years unlike many of the other stadiums (including the skydome).  When the Orioles made a run at things in the late 90s, Baltimore was the best baseball town in the country.  One day, we'll all get to see what it was like.  Today only the die-hard fans show that fervor, but a night at the yard is still one of the best things you can do in Baltimore.

March 5, Spring Training Game Notes

Disclaimer - These posts will be a work in progress as we move through the season and find the best way to break down the games for you guys.

Yesterday featured a split-squad series, with half the team playing the afternoon game against Tampa, and the rest playing the evening game against Pittsburgh.

Pitchers

Brian Matusz started the game and pitched better than his final line suggests.  Matusz sat 90 - 91 with his fastball, and showed pretty good control (especially given the time of year).  This is obviously a huge question mark going into the rest of spring, but early reports are good.  Matusz got ahead of hitters, taking 3 of the 6 batters in the first inning to 0-2 counts.  His secondary stuff looked good too, missing in several curveballs and changeups throughout his start.  I also liked his willingness to throw his secondary stuff in any count, including starting off an at-bat, which is important to keep hitters off balance.

Kevin Gregg was... well... Kevin Gregg.  Gave up two quick hits including a crushed homerun.  He then struc out the side.  Sigh.

Matt Lindstrom and Darren O'Day, two new relievers the O's have this year had some mixed results.  For Lindstrom, velocity comes easy despite a violent leg kick in his delivery.  His delivery may be affecting his control though, he has a career 3.39 BB/9.  O'Day will remind O's fans of Chad Bradford given his unique delivery.  He showed good deception but again below average control.  Hopefully these guys can tighten their control as the spring goes on.

Hitters


Ryan Adams and Chris Davis were the highlights of a lineup that might look similar to one we'll see during the regular season.  Both guys had good first at-bats, battling, and ultimately putting good swings on the ball.  Later in the game Chris Davis followed it up with another solid at-bat in 6th inning by lacing an RBI single into right field after falling behind 1-2.  Small victories.

Manny Machado, shortstop extraordinaire, made 2 nice plays at SS.  Machado, it should be noted played in the afternoon game against the Rays, and then came in off the bench in the nightcap.  Machado made a fantastic diving grab in the top of the 7th showing really good range.  He also made a great throw to first, showcasing his arm strength as well.  Machado helped finish the inning as well starting a double play on a grounder back up the middle.

Thoughts


It was a good first game, and there are definitely areas to grow.  I'm not really worried about the results or the score, though some O's fans might find it depressing to check the final score.  I think the O's have room to grow, but some of the younger guys and/or guys competing for a roster spot showed well.

Jake Arrieta apparently looks pretty good this spring, another good sign for O's fans.

Also, this is the best tweet to this point of Spring Training as far as I can tell:

Where do the O's go now?

Many O's fans were frustrated by the O's seemingly tepid interest in the Prince Fielder pursuit this offseason.  However, upon hearing the terms of his contract with Detroit, cooler heads prevailed and O's fans realized that they should thank Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette for not signing him.  That said, it does leave a hole in the heart of O's fans, as yet another offseason has passed without a major addition (so far at least).  This leaves O's fans with the following question:  What now?

To me, the O's have 2 likely directions to go (assuming we've learned anything from the past 14 years or so).  Let's tackle the better of the two options first.

Best Case Scenario

In 2012 some of the O's young pitchers show some growth and development, and give the team something to move forward from.  Young hitters continue to show annual improvement and dispel some of the critics they've had throughout their young careers.  Wieters has improved every year, and Jones has shown he's a premium talent in CF (especially if you don't put a lot of faith into his UZR ratings, which I don't).
Young guys like Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, Parker Bridwell, etc. continue to develop and are beginning to push their way into the conversation.

Heading into 2013 the O's peruse the Free Agent market and make attempts to sign impact players.  Cole Hamels and Zach Greinke are the most likely 'Aces' to be available as Matt Cain is almost assured a contract extension in San Francisco.  Perhaps Hamels and Greinke aren't cost-effective for the club and they begin to pursue potential trades.  Targets could include Tim Lincecum or Felix Hernandez, but would more likely be for younger, up-and-coming pitchers with a few years of control left.  Hitters are also an area where the team could improve, and targets could include David Wright (who could be a FA pending an option) or Joey Votto.

If the O's follow this plan to success, and some suggest this might be the path they take, it very well could follow the path that other teams like the Rangers have taken.  However, this is no slam dunk by any means, and things could go very very differently.

Worst Case Scenario


2012 is merely 2011 rehashed, and the O's young stars continue hinting that they'll never become the stars O's fans had hoped for.  Guys like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta don't develop as the organization would like and the team realizes competing in the stacked AL East, even with an extra wildcard isn't likely.

Unfortunately for O's fans, stories like this will become all too common.  The organization, realizing the window to compete comes further in the future, will have to maximize its return on the young players and get a new bunch of prospects to give it another go.  This new group will feature Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy, and will likely include stars from trades involving guys like Matusz, Tillman, Jones, Wieters and Hardy.  This is obviously not what O's fans want to see, but it's possible, so you can't ignore it as a possibility.

What's Gonna Happen?


Honestly I think it will be a little bit of both.  Some of the young guys like Wieters and Jones have show that they are developing each year and getting better.  Others have struggled.  I think that the team can put itself in position to fight for a wild card spot in 2013 or 2014 if a few things break the right way and the front office continues to try to improve the player development department.  It's not going to be easy, but the O's have young impact players, and that's the best place to start.

Looking Ahead: The 2012 Orioles Rotation

With Spring Training less than a month away it looks like the Orioles have a lot of spots open in the rotation. There aren’t many surprise candidates for the rotation, but there are a few additions to the ballclub.

After Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles have rotation spots 2-5 up for grabs. The O’s have acquired a few pitchers during the off-season, including the international signings of LHP Tsuyoshi Wada and LHP Wei-Yin Chen. In addition to Wada and Chen, the Orioles traded for journeyman Dana Eveland.

Those aren’t the only candidates for rotation spots. The Orioles also have Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter, Chris Tillman, Brad Bergeson, and Alfredo Simon.

Here is what I think the Orioles 2012 rotation will be:

Jeremy Guthrie - Guthrie has been the Orioles most consistent starter since 2008, making at least 30 starts each season. He also has won 10 games each year, except for last year, when he only won 9. Even though he has lead the American lead in losses in 2009 and 2011, he is the best the Orioles have to offer right now and he does have to go up against other number 1 pitchers, which hurts Guthrie’s numbers.

Wei-Yin Chen - Chen, who is only 26 years-old, is the one of the most recent signings by the Orioles. He has posted great numbers in the Japan Central League, with an average of a 2.48 ERA and an average WHIP of 1.06. I know that Chen’s numbers will not come close to the stats he posted in Japan, but it shouldn’t be a terrible season for Wei-Yin. It will be interesting to see how many innings he will be able to throw with the Orioles as he makes his transition to Major League Baseball.

Zach Britton - Britton was drafted by the Orioles in the 3rd round of the 2006 Draft out of Weatherford High School. He made his debut last season taking the rotation spot of Brian Matusz. In his Major League debut, Britton threw 6 innings of 1-run baseball and earned his first career victory. He had a great first-half to the 2011 season, posting an ERA under 4.00 until July 8th. Britton’s second-half ended up being miserable, as his ERA rose to 4.61 by the end of the season. Besides a rising ERA, he was also sent down the Minors to work on his mechanics. Britton’s sophomore season should be an interesting one to watch. Like Brian Matusz, Britton will have something to prove this year, trying to show that his 2011 first-half is what the real Zach Britton will pitch like. Britton will most likely have an innings cap for the 2012 season.

Jake Arrieta - Even though Arrieta is coming off a season-ending surgery, where he got a bone spur removed from his right elbow, I still expect him to compete for a spot at the end of the rotation. Arrieta did finish with 10 wins last season, despite his season ending in August. Last year he only posted a 5.05 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, which are much higher than league averages, I expect him to post better numbers this year, with an ERA below 5.00 and a WHIP below 1.40.

Brian Matusz - The 4th pick in the 1st round of the 2008 MLB Draft, Matusz was looked at as the potential ace of the Orioles staff. He definitely looked the part, dominating the Minor Leagues and making 8 starts for the Orioles in 2009. In 2010, Matusz struggled for the 1st half of the season and the month of July. However, once August hit he caught fire. Matusz went 7-1 from August 4th until the end of the season. 2011 looked like a bright future for Brian, but it went in the completely wrong direction for his development. Like Jeff said in an earlier article, Matusz was a little unlucky and injuries and a loss in velocity caused his numbers to decline greatly. I expect a bounce-back season from Matusz, hopefully the off-season will allow him to regain confidence and recover from any injuries.

Another legitimate contender for the 5th rotation spot is Tsuyoshi Wada. I view Wada as a Koji Uehara-type who will have a slighty difficult transition to the States.

However, all of these pitchers mentioned early have a chance to start a game in 2012. It is impossible to exactly predict injuries or break-out seasons. There may also be inconsistency, which Brian Matusz had last season. Another question is, will Jeremy Guthrie finally be traded this season?

This may be a tough year for the Orioles, with the 4 other AL East teams having very competitive teams and decent farm systems, but hopefully the Orioles younger pitchers will continue to develop so the O’s will have a formidable rotation in the future.

What Happened to Matusz?

We're all aware of the precipitous fall of Brian Matusz from potential savior to bullpen fodder for the AL East.  While many were disheartened, there's reason to believe the trend we saw last year is temporary.  Let's take a look at some of the facts from last year:

Matusz's Stats for 2011 and his career:

From http://www.fangraphs.com

There are a few points to make about his stat line from last year.  The first is that his Line Drive rate (LD% from 'Batted Ball') was not as high as you would expect from someone with a 10.69 ERA.  What is of note in 'Batted Ball' that some of his groundballs have become flyballs.  Why did that hurt him so much?  Because an absurd 20% of the flyballs he gave up went for home runs (HR/FB%).

Another figure to mention?  Under 'Advanced' you can see that the BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) against Matusz was .382, again absurdly high.  Matusz's xBABIP or expected BABIP was a much more modest .301.  This discrepancy suggests that Matusz was more unlucky than bad last year.

What does this mean?

So is Matusz just unlucky?  Will he miraculously bounce back next year?  Well, that question is a little tougher.  Matusz's velocity has dipped from 91.5 MPH his rookie year to just 88.5 last year.  While 3 MPH doesn't seem like much, it has an impact on his ability to set up and use his offspeed offerings.  Matusz has also lost some of the horizontal movement on his fastball and change up, leading to straighter and more htittable pitches.  At the same time, his release point and location seem somewhat consistent, though his control was worse last year, as exhibited by his career high 4.35 BB/9.

Can he get it together?  A full offseason to fully recover from the myriad of injuries he sustained last year will help.  An offseason to work on his strength and conditioning will also help.  If Matusz finds those few MPH he lost on his fastball he could return to the guy we all saw the second half of 2010.  We'll find out in Spring Training, and it will likely determine his fate for the season.  I think he can regain his prior form, but it's going to take a lot of hard work and dedication.  Matusz has shown the desire to improve and develop, and I hope he continues to commit himself to that so last year will be seen as an aberration.