Recap of the Orioles/A’s Series and The Week Ahead

After losing the first 2 games of the series against the scorching-hot A’s, the Orioles, behind Wei-Yin Chen, were able to win the last game of the series 6 to 1. Chen pitched 5.2 innings and struck out 12. With the win, Chen improves to 9-6 on the year.

To recap the series the Orioles started the series against Oakland on Friday night, where Zach Britton faced off against A’s rookie right-hander Jarrod Parker. This game went back-and-forth, with the A’s getting off to a 5-0 lead by the 2^nd inning. However, the O’s rallied back with a homerun by Chris Davis in the 2^nd inning and a homerun by Adam Jones in the 5^th inning. Jones homerun put the O’s up 6-5. In the 6^th inning the A’s pinch hit Seth Smith for Johnny Gomes and Smith hit a base-clearing double to put the Athletics up 8-6. However, the O’s battled back in the 8^th inning and eventually took the lead 9-8. The A’s came up in the 9^th against O’s closer Jim Johnson, who has pitched extremely solid this season, and scored six runs off of him. The O’s fell 14-9.

In the second game of the series, Tommy Hunter squared off against Bartolo Colon. The game was kept scoreless until the 4^th inning, when smoking-hot A’s OF Yoenis Cespedes hit a two-run homerun off of Hunter. Hunter, who has been plagued by the long-ball all year, gave up another homerun to A’s 1B Chris Carter in the 6^th. The O’s lone run came in the 9^th inning when Nick Markakis homered.

Thankfully for the Orioles, Chen was able to put together a great outing today and Matt Wieters finally showed some sign of life with a three-run homerun in the 3^rd inning off of A’s success-story Travis Blackley. Recently-acquired Omar Quintanilla also homered for the O’s.

(Another note from the today’s game is that the Orioles started OF Lew Ford in left-field today and he batted 5^th. Ford hasn’t played in the big leagues since 2007, when he was a member of the Minnesota Twins. It’s great to see Ford make it all the way back to “The Show”.)

However, the two losses against Oakland did hurt the O’s in the Wild Card Standings. They are still 2.5 games back of Oakland and Anaheim.

The Orioles have some very crucial games in the upcoming week. If the O’s want to stay at the top of the playoff hunt they must win both series against the Yankees and the Rays.

The next week could really determine whether the O’s stay in the playoff hunt or return to their former ways of being at the bottom of the cellar in the AL East. 

Fun With PITCHf/x for Hitters

Recently Dan Brooks of Brooks Baseball fame and Baseball Prospectus teamed up to supply some pitchf/x data for hitters in  really unique way on the Baseball Prospectus website.  Dan is constantly adding functionality to the application, and his most recent update has some pretty cool implications for understanding the data behind batter performance.  This post is going to highlight a lot of the really cool visualizations that this new tool allows us to create.

Adam Jones

This first breakdown compares Adam Jones' True Average on breaking balls down & away versus his True Average on those same pitches this season.  Keep in mind that the typical Small Sample Size (SSS) warning applies here, but it's interesting nonetheless.  For a description of True Average check out Baseball Prospectus' glossary here.

Adam Jones TAv Career - Normalized for RHH

Adam Jones TAv 2012 - Normalized for RHH

The interesting point here is that, over his career, Jones has performed well below average on breaking balls down & away compared to other MLB right-handed batters.  However, so far this season, Jones' performance has been above league average (.260) in all 4 quadrants of the low and away portion of the zone.  This is certainly interesting, and could be a reason for Jones' success thus far this season.

Chris Davis

Here we're going to look at how pitchers have been pitching to Chris Davis so far this season, something that I think shows how well pitchers adjust to hitters over the course of a season.  The first image will show, compared to other left-handed hitters how often Davis sees "hard pitches" (fastballs) in a certain zone.  The second image shows Davis' True Average over the various zones against "hard pitches".

Chris Davis Frequency 2012 - Normalized for LHH & "Hard Pitches"

Chris Davis TAv 2012 - Normalized for LHH & "Hard Pitches"

As you can see, the league has adjusted.  Davis sees many more hard pitches, basically fastballs of various types, up in the zone compared to other lefties.  Consequently, hard pitches down in the zone, typically a staple for many pitchers, are not being seen by Davis.  This is likely because of his performance on those pitches, as exhibited by the True Average image above.  Davis has multiple zones where his TAv is significantly above the league average figure of .260.

Nick Markakis

The last player we'll analyze today is another long-time Oriole, Nick Markakis.  The interesting thing about Nick's data is that it seems nobody knows where to pitch Nick.  The lowest % in terms of pitch frequency is 85.63% which is quite high.  The second image shows how Nick has performed against pitches in the various zones, and highlights the lack of a hole in the zone for the most part.

Nick Markakis Frequency Career - Normalized for LHH

Nick Markakis TAv Career - Normalized for RHH

This color scheme shows just how good Nick has been at covering all zones across the plate.  Of the 25 zones in the breakdown, only 4 of them show TAv values that deviate significantly from the league average figure.

Takeaways

All in all this tool is very cool.  If you haven't already, you should play around with it here and see if you can find any interesting data.  I hope to do more of this in the future, and I really think the applications for this data are truly endless.  Let me know any interesting points you notice from the graphs above, or feel free to link to new graphs in the comment section.

The Impressive Orioles

As many of you knew, I was out of town for the beginning of this month travelling in China.  I had a great time, but I also missed some phenomenal Oriole baseball and my favorite thing in the baseball world - position players pitching.

Best. Thing. Ever.

Along those lines, I was reading Buster Olney's blog from today and saw a unique anecdote - the Orioles have made 22 roster changes since that game.  On May 6th the Orioles played the Boston Red Sox in a 17 inning contest where Chris Davis emerged with the victory throwing 2 phenomenal innings in relief.  Since then, the Orioles 25 man roster has been a revolving door with players moving up and down, hitting the DL and generally moving about the organization.

Olney also points out that the Texas Rangers have yet to make a roster move this season, riding a healthy roster to a AL-leading 23 wins.

The most impressive thing to me about the Orioles season thus far, is that they've gotten so far despite having to overcome countless hurdles.  Just in case you weren't keeping track, let's talk about a few of the hurdles they've jumped over:

The Orioles are 8th worst in BB%, 8th worst in K%, and currently have 7 guys on the DL.  Tsuyoshi Wada had Tommy John Surgery 4 days again and is out for the season, Taylor Teagarden was moved to the 60-Day DL 5 days ago and Brian Roberts may or may not be back in the next calendar year, oh and we lead the AL in errors.

Honestly, the most impressive thing to me is that the Orioles have won 22 games in spite of all these difficulties.  Zach Britton, considered one of the O's best pitchers coming into the season has yet to throw a pitch for the big league team.  Brian Roberts, our highly paid star second baseman hasn't played significant time since the Bush administration but the revolving door of utility guys (Betemit, Andino, Tolleson, Flaherty) who have replaced him have been a spark plug for the team.  The Orioles atrocious defense has lead to 23 unearned runs scoring, and yet the team hasn't been hurt by its pitching.

The team is 11-9 at OPACY, and 11-5 on the road this season.  They are 12-7 against the AL East and an impressive 6-1 against the AL Central.  The only division the team has struggled against is the West with the powerhouses in Anaheim and Texas resulting in the O's 4-6 record against the West division.  They are 5-3 in 1-run games, and 4-2 in games that go to extra innings.

Are the Orioles this good?  Well no.  At this pace they'd win 99 games and likely make the playoffs fairly easily (given the extra wild card and what not).  However, the fact that they're winning despite all these difficulties is impressive and bods well for the future.

I was more bullish on the O's and guys like Wei-Yin Chen this offseason, putting the over/under at 74 wins for the team.  I think they'll make that number, and have a decent chance at breaking .500 for the first time in - way too long.  So far it looks like they have a legitimate shot to fulfill that promise I saw early on.  I'm excited because if they can fix some of these flaws, then they have a very good chance to continue this success throughout the season as guys get healthy and start to come back form the DL.

Opening Day Magic

Friend of the blog Jonathan Foreman wrote up a nice piece about Opening Day at Camden Yards.  In my absence, Jon represented the blog at the game and passed along a few notes for fellow O's fans.  Enjoy!

At the Orioles opening day game (a true opening day, unlike those tricky home openers the last two seasons) on Friday a friend turned to me and said, “this is surreal.”  I agreed.

Maybe it was Rick Sutcliffe throwing a perfect strike for the opening pitch to Chris Hoiles, or the scoreboard error before the game that had Brian Roberts in the lineup, and J.J. Hardy playing DH, or new PA announcer Ryan Wagner (who for my money did a fantastic job), or the streaker on the field in the top of the forth inning wearing nothing but shorts and a cape, or the marriage proposal third base side in the stands. (Editor's note - I think we all know that streaking involves nudity).

There are a lot of maybes, but there is one definite: opening day is a packed house of Orioles fans.  It is something that reminds my generation of 1996 and 1997, and of the Cal Ripken years in general at Camden Yards.  We celebrate the twentieth year anniversary of Camden Yards this year, and opening day is the one moment that it feels like the first few years, not the last fourteen.

With that said here are some positive notes from the game:

• Anyone who did not see the game will look at Jake Arrieta’s stat line, but his performance was even more impressive than his stats.  There were a few questionable calls on balls that should have been strikes that lead to his early walks.  He was throwing consistently in the mid-90s, and most of his pitches looked crisp.  What surprised me though was how good he looked defensively (including snagging a plastic bag that was floating past him and putting it in his back pocket).

• The ball was flying off of J.J. Hardy’s bat today, but Nick Markakis looked like the best hitter on either team today.  He looks much stronger than last season, where in the first game he looked malnourished.  A homerun, triple, and walk is a good way to start the season for a guy who needs to recapture his power stroke (and just might have). (Editor's note - Markakis added a 2nd HR tonight as well.  This is good).

• There are a lot of Chris Davis bashers out there, and he has to prove that he can hit major league pitching.  However, there is little question about his glove.  Davis made a diving catch while keeping the tip of his toe on the bag on a Mark Reynolds throw that would have been Reynold’s first error of the year, but instead was an out at first.   Also, an overzealous Adam Jones threw a cannon to first to try to catch a tagging up runner and Davis leapt in the air to make the catch on a ball that likely would have advanced the Twin’s runners (and hit Buck Showalter in the face). (Editor's Note - Not to be denied, Reynolds got that error back tonight by misplaying a ground ball).

• The ballpark upgrades make Camden Yards look even better than it did twenty years ago.  Rather than spell all of them out, comment below on which upgrades you feel are the most welcome this year.
  
  
  - Jon Foreman

March 5, Spring Training Game Notes

Disclaimer - These posts will be a work in progress as we move through the season and find the best way to break down the games for you guys.

Yesterday featured a split-squad series, with half the team playing the afternoon game against Tampa, and the rest playing the evening game against Pittsburgh.

Pitchers

Brian Matusz started the game and pitched better than his final line suggests.  Matusz sat 90 - 91 with his fastball, and showed pretty good control (especially given the time of year).  This is obviously a huge question mark going into the rest of spring, but early reports are good.  Matusz got ahead of hitters, taking 3 of the 6 batters in the first inning to 0-2 counts.  His secondary stuff looked good too, missing in several curveballs and changeups throughout his start.  I also liked his willingness to throw his secondary stuff in any count, including starting off an at-bat, which is important to keep hitters off balance.

Kevin Gregg was... well... Kevin Gregg.  Gave up two quick hits including a crushed homerun.  He then struc out the side.  Sigh.

Matt Lindstrom and Darren O'Day, two new relievers the O's have this year had some mixed results.  For Lindstrom, velocity comes easy despite a violent leg kick in his delivery.  His delivery may be affecting his control though, he has a career 3.39 BB/9.  O'Day will remind O's fans of Chad Bradford given his unique delivery.  He showed good deception but again below average control.  Hopefully these guys can tighten their control as the spring goes on.

Hitters


Ryan Adams and Chris Davis were the highlights of a lineup that might look similar to one we'll see during the regular season.  Both guys had good first at-bats, battling, and ultimately putting good swings on the ball.  Later in the game Chris Davis followed it up with another solid at-bat in 6th inning by lacing an RBI single into right field after falling behind 1-2.  Small victories.

Manny Machado, shortstop extraordinaire, made 2 nice plays at SS.  Machado, it should be noted played in the afternoon game against the Rays, and then came in off the bench in the nightcap.  Machado made a fantastic diving grab in the top of the 7th showing really good range.  He also made a great throw to first, showcasing his arm strength as well.  Machado helped finish the inning as well starting a double play on a grounder back up the middle.

Thoughts


It was a good first game, and there are definitely areas to grow.  I'm not really worried about the results or the score, though some O's fans might find it depressing to check the final score.  I think the O's have room to grow, but some of the younger guys and/or guys competing for a roster spot showed well.

Jake Arrieta apparently looks pretty good this spring, another good sign for O's fans.

Also, this is the best tweet to this point of Spring Training as far as I can tell:

Predicting a Breakout Season for Chris Davis

For the first time in a long time, Chris Davis will actually get an opportunity to play every day without worrying about being benched or sent down.

Eduardo A. Encina from the Baltimore Sun reported last week that Manager Buck Showalter said he wanted Davis to play first base and that Davis shouldn’t be concerned about his starting spot. (Here is the link: http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-02-09/sports/bal-some-thursday-morning-thoughts-20120209_1_orioles-executive-vice-president-jonathan-schoop-nick-markakis)

With that said, is it possible for Chris Davis to finally have a full season in the Majors where he gets an opportunity to breakout?

Some people may say he had a breakout season in 2008, when he played 80 games for the Rangers.

He originally started out in Double-A for Texas but was moved up to Triple-A after 46 games. On June 26^th he was finally moved up to the Major league club. In 80 games, he finished with a .285 average, 17 home runs, and 55 runs batted in.

2009 was supposed to result in similar numbers, but strikeouts became an even bigger issue for Davis. Compared to 2008’s strikeout percentage of 27.8%, his percentage moved up to 35.8%.

He managed to still hit 21 home runs in 113 games, but his averaged decreased significantly to just .238.

In 2010, Davis spent the majority of the season in Triple-A where he played in 103 games and finished with an average of .327, 14 home runs, and 80 runs batted in. However, in 45 games with the Rangers, he finished with an average of .192, only 1 home run, 4 runs batted in.

He still managed to struggle with striking out, finishing with a percentage of 29.4%.

In 2011, he played 48 games in Triple-A and 28 with the Rangers.

On July 30^th he was traded to the Orioles along with RHP Tommy Hunter for RHP Koji Uehara.

In 31 games with the Orioles last year he was able to hit .276, but only hit 2 home runs, and only drove in 13 runs.

Unfortunately, he had a small tear in his shoulder on August 16, 2011 and played the final month of the season recovering from the injury.

So what really are the chances he can put together a solid major league season?

Davis finally has an opportunity to play a whole major league season this year. But over the past few years there have been many whispers that he could be your prototypical “AAAA Player”.

Some people have been able to shed this label (Nelson Cruz), however some people have been less fortunate (Dallas McPherson?).  The obvious key for Davis is to limit his strikeout percentage and increase his on-base percentage, by increasing his walk rate.  Other issues for Davis are hitting off-speed pitches and hitting left-handed pitching.

In the end if Davis is able to translate his stats from the minors to the majors then fans could expect a decent season from him.  With Spring Training coming up, Davis will have a chance to continue to improve and with a full season in the majors Davis has a chance to reach his full potential.

With that said: nothing is ever guaranteed.  Hopefully Chris can figure it out and be able to shine and be a potential bright spot in possibly another dark year for the O’s.

Prince Fielder Fallout from FanFest

Here's another guest post from Jonathan Foreman on the O's outlook on Prince Fielder from today's FanFest.  Thanks to Jonathan for another great post.

There was one consistent message from both times Manager Buck Showalter was asked about the chances of the Orioles signing Prince Fielder today at FanFest.  Showalter stated, “Never overlook an orchid when looking for a rose.”  This was followed by a glowing review of Chris Davis.  A player who Buck feels could hit twenty homeruns in addition to above average defense.

Is Chris Davis Buck’s choice for starting First Baseman next season or are we going to bid for Fielder?  The answer is different depending on which panel you attended. 

During the morning panel with season ticket holders, when Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette was asked about Prince Fielder, Duquette said “I don’t know about that.”  The answer was short, definitive, and seemed to indicate that the signing was simply not even being considered.

During the afternoon session with the general fan base Duquette seemed much more upbeat about Fielder when asked.  Duquette echoed that he had owner, Peter Angelos’s support and wanted to do whatever he could to make sure the team had a winning record next year.  Does that include signing Prince? “I don't know.” Duquette said, “But if we don't get him, we'll look for somebody like him and we'll certainly do our best to give you guys some stars players that you can identify with.”

Tough to tell which way Duquette is leaning, but I for one have been and continue to be optimistic the O’s will be competitive in the Fielder sweepstakes.

- Jonathan