Buck Showalter: Tactical Genius?

Jim Johnson's Dominance

Let's start this conversation by saying that this is going to be one of those stat-heavy posts.  In this case we'll be utilizing the win probability data from fangraphs, which you can find here.  The first point I'd like to note is that according to Win Probability Added, Jim Johnson is the best pitcher in baseball this season with a fairly sizable lead over Justin Verlander.  Here's an explanation of WPA if you're not familiar with the stat.  Not necessarily that important, just something interesting to think about as we look at the bullpen usage more in depth.

Buck Showalter's Bullpen Usage

The stat I really want to focus on is gmLI which basically gives an indication of how intense the situation is when the pitcher enters the game.  Using the same page from before we can sort the pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings in MLB by gmLI.  If you want more info on Leverage Indices and how they work, click on the link in the first sentence of this section.

As you can see, Jim Johnson is tied for 9th in MLB with an average leverage index of 1.79 for the games he enters.  As stated in the fangraphs explanation, anything above 1 is an average leverage appearance, so that figure shows that Buck is using his best pitcher in the most critical situations.  Johnson's 1.79 leverage index leads the Orioles, but looking at the rest of the staff gives more insight into how Buck has used the bullpen.

If we sort out the Orioles' pitchers we can look at the average leverage index when each guy enters the game, and get an idea of who pitches in the highest leverage and lowest leverage appearances.  Johnson paces the O's with a gmLI of 1.79, followed by Strop at 1.71.  These two guys have pitched in the most crucial situations, and their performances have backed up Buck's aggressive usage.

The O's also have a bunch of pitchers between average leverage at 1.00 and 1.16, slightly above average.  From most to least these guys are: Ayala, Lindstrom, O'Day and Patton.  All of these guys have provided quality innings out of the bullpen, though these mainly come earlier in games which might play a role in their lower gmLIs.  At the opposite end of the spectrum Kevin Gregg and Dana Eveland bring up the rear with 0.81 and 0.60 gmLIs.  These are almost certainly a function of their usage, as Gregg rarely pitches in close games and Eveland is the de facto long-man coming in when a starter exits early.

What Does It Mean?

Well to assess the seasons these guys have had, we'll use a stat called ERA-.  Basically ERA- adjusts a pitchers ERA for their league, home park, etc.  For this particular stat a score of 100 would be league average, and the lower your number is the better.  Here are the ERA- stats (among other stats) for the O's pitchers:

Johnson, Lindstrom and Strop have absurd ERA- stats of 29, 31 and 34 respectively, showing that they've been absurdly better than league average to this point.  O'Day and Ayala both also have scores below 50.  This presents an opportunity for Buck to perhaps spread out some of the high leverage situations among these guys as well as they've shown the capability to handle it.  Will they be this good for the whole season?  Probably not.  What we have, and can hope to continue to see is that Buck using his pitchers well. I'm thinking of Buck putting Jim Johnson out there in tie games against the Phils and Yankees earlier this season rather than saving him for the "traditional save chances".

Buck has used the bullpen really well so far this season despite them having to throw a lot of innings.  That said, he needs to continue to manage the bullpen well to put guys in positions to succeed.  Using Johnson as he has allows him to utilize his best pitchers in the most critical situations - giving the O's the best chance to win.  Buck's decision on the lineup and who starts where might be questionable, but his usage of the pitching staff has been really solid so far.

Worst to First: Bullpen Improvements

No, I'm not talking about the Orioles winning the AL East this season.  Nor am I literally saying that they are going from worst to first.  This post is really more about one area where the team has shown vast improvement over last season.

Last season the Orioles bullpen ERA was 4.18, good for 4th worst in MLB, and 2nd worst in the AL behind those pesky Minnesota Twins.  Not to mention that the FIP of 4.31 that group posted shows we could have been even worse.  Those were good times.  No lead was safe, and excitement at the end of games was common (especially for other teams).

This season however, things are looking up.  The bullpen has an ERA of 2.25, the 4th best mark in MLB this season and 2nd best in the AL behind that team from New York.  Granted, FIP calculations (the O's bullpen has a FIP of 3.78 this season) suggest that the 'pen is in for some regression.  Despite this, the bullpen has impressed, and here's how they've done it:

Kevin Gregg

Let's just move on... nothing to see here.

Troy Patton

Oh Buck.  Patton versus left-handed batters: 13 batters faced, 3 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 Ks.  Patton versus right-handed hitters: 18 batters faced, 6 hits, 3 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 Ks.  If we would stop putting Patton in against right-handed hitters he might be able to bring that 4.91 ERA down.

Pedro Strop

Strop has been a pleasant surprise thus far as I imagined he'd have a few more growing pains than he has.  He's sporting a 2.25 ERA with a 2.45 FIP and 2.79 xFIP to prove it's not a fluke.  Good stuff.  He's also striking out a batter an inning and getting 78% groundballs.

Darren O'Day

O'Day is sporting a 1.29 ERA, mostly as a result of his phenomenal peripherals.  O'Day has K and BB rates of 9 and 2.57 batters per 9 innings respectively, and has stranded 100% of the runners on base against him.  I would also expect his 47% GB rate to come up a bit meaning he might be able to sustain some of this success.

Lindstrom, Ayala, Johnson

These three are currently posting a combined ERA of 0.00 over 21 IP.  Ironically, Johnson has pitched pretty poorly, with a low K rate and a high BB rate, but that hasn't caused him to slow down as he leads the AL in saves.  I obviously don't expect all 3 to finish the season with 0.00 ERAs, but thus far they've been impressive.

At this point a perennial weakness looks like it might be a strength for this team.  Honestly, I wasn't sure about the bullpen heading into the season, but 3 of the pickups made this offseason have turned out pretty well so far.  Worst to First, one part of the team at a time.

The Worst Pitcher Is...

Tsuyoshi Wada should be coming off the DL soon, and the question is - does he go in the rotation or the bullpen.  Who does he replace on the roster when he comes back?  Well, the easiest way to determine this is to find out who the worst pitcher is so far.  So, let's get to it...

The Nominees

Brian Matusz

Brian has struggled to start the season  despite showing better stuff and an impressive spring, Matusz has struggled this season.  In his first 2 starts, Matusz has gone just 9.2 IP with walk and K rates of 7.45 and 4.66 respectively.  Matusz has been a bit unlucky (like having Kevin Gregg relieve him), exemplified by his BABIP against of .344 and an xFIP nearly 2 runs lower than his ERA.  Matusz has actually pitched better than his numbers indicate, the biggest issue being his lack of control.  If he can figure out why he can't locate his pitches, he could bounce back nicely.  Matusz's stats:

Troy Patton

Patton currently boasts a 7.71 ERA despite being one of the few relievers with a better K/9 ration than his BB/9 ratio.  xFIP is much more kind to Patton as it suggests his ERA should be somewhere 3.50, more than 4 runs lower than his current ERA.  Patton is a candidate for the worst pitcher on only a surface level.  Patton's stats:

Tommy Hunter

Hunter is the opposite of Patton, a pitcher who has pitched significantly worse than his surface level numbers would indicate.  Hunter currently sports a sparkling 2.77 ERA despite FIP and xFIP having him at 7.06 and 4.66 respectively.  Hunter has cost the Orioles .2 wins already this season according to Fangraphs.  The reasons for this?  A miniscule K rate of 3.46 batters per nine innings is an issue to look forward to for the rest of the season.  Similarly, a regression of his current BABIP against of .194 to the mean (currently .279) would likely result in a worse showing by Hunter going forward.  Hunter's stats:

Kevin Gregg

Where should I start?  Gregg walks .82 batters per inning.  That's 7.36 per 9 innings.  Meanwhile he strikes out only .55 batters per inning.  That's troubling.  His 12.27 ERA is slightly inflated (by a .462 BABIP) as FIP and xFIP have him at 9.45 and 8.17 respectively.  To be fair both of those would be absolutely terrible as well, but there's nothing that I've seen from Gregg that makes me believe that .462 BABIP is an aberration.  I think half the readers of this site could get a hit or walk against him right now.  Gregg's stats (sorry):

The Winner Is...

Kevin Gregg.  I REALLY wanted to pick Tommy Hunter who has looked pretty awful despite showing decent numbers (and by that I mean ERA).  I honestly think Matusz and Patton have legitimate reasons to stay where they are, but Hunter and Gregg have been pretty questionable overall.  In reality, I wouldn't be upset if Wada replaced Hunter in the rotation and Hunter moved to the bullpen, banishing Kevin Gregg off to a place where he only ever has to pitch the 9th inning (as that's the biggest cause of his woes thus far according to him).  What do you think?

The Orioles Should Trade for Mike Pelfrey

According to this post on MLBTradeRumors, the New York Mets want to trade Mike Pelfrey.  The Orioles should trade for him for a variety of reasons.

Why Pelfrey?

Pelfrey has thrown no less than 184 innings since 2008, showing flashes of the potential he once had.  As recent as 2010 Pelfrey pitched very well with an ERA of 3.66, which is supported by a FIP of 3.82.  This wasn't exactly a one-hit wonder, as Pelfrey pitched to a 3.72 ERA in 2008 over 200 IP.  Again, a FIP of 3.96 suggests that the ERA was not fluky like some might believe.

Don't get me wrong, Pelfrey pitched pretty horribly in both 2009 and 2011, and isn't exactly a dynamic guy with a K/9 of just 5 over the past 4 years.  However, Pelfrey has done a great job of getting groundballs, last year being an aberration if you look at his career stats.  Through 2009 Pelfrey average a GB/FB ratio of 1.7 which fell to just 1.31 last year.  If Pelfrey could bring that figure back to his career average he could succeed in Camden Yards despite gaudy strikeout numbers.  We know this can be successful because Zach Britton posted a FIP of 4 last season despite striking out just 5.66 batters per nine innings.

Makings of a Trade


The O's could propose a trade of Kevin Gregg for Mike Pelfrey.  This trade removes Gregg from the O's books, and more importantly from coming into games that matter.  The Mets get a guy who can make sure that DJ Carrasco and Pedro Beato start the season in AAA, getting more experience before making full-time bids in the bullpen.  From a contract standpoint it makes a lot of sense too.  Pelfrey will make $5.675 Million this season, while Gregg is set to make $5.8 Million.  Gregg will benefit from moving to the NL, and Pelfrey will benefit greatly from getting out of New York.

I'm not going to lie and say that Pelfrey is a tremendous upgrade over what the O's have.  Or that he's even  lock to make the rotation.  However, this trade could be mutually beneficial for both teams.  The O's could put Pefrey in the rotation, assuring that Hunter, Wada, and Simon move to the bullpen (where they belong).

This is a gamble worth taking.  Why?  Gregg isn't exactly the most beloved Oriole if you ask the fans.  Similarly, the O's wnt to make sure they put their young pitchers in a position to succeed.  With Zach Britton out for a while, this type of gamble could pay huge dividends.  What's the worst case scenario?  Mike Pelfrey ends up being as bad as Kevin Gregg?  I think the O's could live with that.  We Already are.

March 5, Spring Training Game Notes

Disclaimer - These posts will be a work in progress as we move through the season and find the best way to break down the games for you guys.

Yesterday featured a split-squad series, with half the team playing the afternoon game against Tampa, and the rest playing the evening game against Pittsburgh.

Pitchers

Brian Matusz started the game and pitched better than his final line suggests.  Matusz sat 90 - 91 with his fastball, and showed pretty good control (especially given the time of year).  This is obviously a huge question mark going into the rest of spring, but early reports are good.  Matusz got ahead of hitters, taking 3 of the 6 batters in the first inning to 0-2 counts.  His secondary stuff looked good too, missing in several curveballs and changeups throughout his start.  I also liked his willingness to throw his secondary stuff in any count, including starting off an at-bat, which is important to keep hitters off balance.

Kevin Gregg was... well... Kevin Gregg.  Gave up two quick hits including a crushed homerun.  He then struc out the side.  Sigh.

Matt Lindstrom and Darren O'Day, two new relievers the O's have this year had some mixed results.  For Lindstrom, velocity comes easy despite a violent leg kick in his delivery.  His delivery may be affecting his control though, he has a career 3.39 BB/9.  O'Day will remind O's fans of Chad Bradford given his unique delivery.  He showed good deception but again below average control.  Hopefully these guys can tighten their control as the spring goes on.

Hitters


Ryan Adams and Chris Davis were the highlights of a lineup that might look similar to one we'll see during the regular season.  Both guys had good first at-bats, battling, and ultimately putting good swings on the ball.  Later in the game Chris Davis followed it up with another solid at-bat in 6th inning by lacing an RBI single into right field after falling behind 1-2.  Small victories.

Manny Machado, shortstop extraordinaire, made 2 nice plays at SS.  Machado, it should be noted played in the afternoon game against the Rays, and then came in off the bench in the nightcap.  Machado made a fantastic diving grab in the top of the 7th showing really good range.  He also made a great throw to first, showcasing his arm strength as well.  Machado helped finish the inning as well starting a double play on a grounder back up the middle.

Thoughts


It was a good first game, and there are definitely areas to grow.  I'm not really worried about the results or the score, though some O's fans might find it depressing to check the final score.  I think the O's have room to grow, but some of the younger guys and/or guys competing for a roster spot showed well.

Jake Arrieta apparently looks pretty good this spring, another good sign for O's fans.

Also, this is the best tweet to this point of Spring Training as far as I can tell:

“A Call to the ‘Pen”

As 2012 approaches it looks like the Orioles bullpen is pretty much set. Last year the O’s bullpen was not terrible, but not great either. Yes, they did have a 4.18 ERA, but some players did shine however, especially pitchers Jim Johnson and current Texas Ranger Koji Uehara. Johnson appeared in 69 games for the O’s last season and had the highest WAR for any pitcher in the bullpen of the O’s, 1.6, and he also finished with a 2.67 ERA. The latter had a 1.72 ERA with the O’s as well as having 11.87 K/9.

With 2012 come new goals and new faces. Like I mentioned earlier, Uehara is no longer on the Orioles after being traded on July 30^th to Texas for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter. Some new faces include Tsuyoshi Wada, Dana Eveland and Darren O’Day.

The Orioles have a lot of options for the bullpen with this season and these are who I predict to be the main contributors (in no particular order):

- Tsuyoshi Wada

- Brad Bergesen

- Tommy Hunter

- Darren O’Day

- Alfredo Simon

- Pedro Strop

- Kevin Gregg (pictured at the top)

- Jim Johnson

A few of the pitchers above do have some starting experience and will provide value as swingman, especially Wada, Bergesen, Hunter, and Simon.

Even though a lot of people predict Wada will be in the rotation, I expect him to be in the bullpen for the majority of the year. With the crossover from Japan to the Majors, I expect it to put a little wear-and-tear on Wada’s arm. He almost reminds me of Koji Uehara, who started off in the rotation, but ended up in the bullpen due to injury.

Relievers Pedro Strop and Darren O’Day will provide decent value for the O’s in the middle-to-late innings of the game, especially the 6^th and 7^th innings. Bill James predicts Strop to finish with 30 innings in 2012, with a 3.90 ERA and a 9.60 K/9 and a 4.5 BB/9. The key for Strop will be to limit his walks and to be able to control his off-speed pitches, such as his slider and his splitter. O’Day‘s main concern is staying healthy. In 2011, O’Day hit the Disabled List twice- the 60-Day DL with a torn labrum in his left hip, and the 15-Day DL once with right shoulder inflammation. His best two seasons came with the Rangers in 2009 and 2010, where he had 1.94 and 2.03 ERA. He also had 0.95 and 0.88 WHIP.

As for the back-end up the bullpen, Kevin Gregg should set-up Jim Johnson. Yes, Kevin Gregg is a so-called “proven closer”, but even though he’s saved over 20 games the past 5 years, he still does not have good numbers. As a closer, the lowest ERA he has had was 3.41 in ’08 with the Marlins. He also has spotty command at best. Last season he walked 6.03 hitters per nine.

Johnson should definitely be the closer for the Orioles. Like I said earlier, Johnson was arguably the Orioles best reliever last season and has chance to put up similar numbers this year. In an earlier post, Jeff mentioned why Johnson would be a better reliever than starter (here is the link: http://warehouseworthy.blogspot.com/2011/12/jim-johnson-closer-or-starter.html).

All in all, the Orioles bullpen will most likely not drastically improve, but there is a chance for a few different pitchers to establish themselves as solid relievers for the Orioles in the next few years. Hopefully they will not have as much weight on them as they did last year.