A Reaction to the Jeremy Guthrie Trade

Today Jeremy Guthrie was finally traded. There had been rumors and speculation of Guthrie being dealt the past few years.

Earlier this off-season there was speculation that the Rockies were interested in Guthrie, but it never moved past the point of speculation.

Guthrie was traded to the Colorado Rockies for RHP Jason Hammel (pictured above) and RHP Matt Lindstrom. I know most Orioles fans are probably upset that the most reliable pitcher on the team was finally traded. However, this isn’t necessarily a bad deal for the Orioles.

Yes, some fans probably think that the O’s could’ve gotten more for Guthrie, but at GM Dan Duquette’s Press Conference today he was quoted as saying that “We didn’t have any offers of young prospects for Jeremy.”

What this means is that the Orioles took the best deal they could possibly get.

With Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom we get a back-end of the rotation starter and an average to above-average setup man.

Hammel originally started off in the AL East, pitching three years for the Tampa Bay Rays. However, with Tampa having a logjam in their rotation, Hammel became expendable and was flipped to the Colorado Rockies.

In 2009, Hammel finally got a chance to start, appearing in 34 games, and making 30 starts. He finished 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The next season he had similar numbers, posting a 10-9 record, with an extreme increase in ERA to 4.81 and a 1.39 WHIP.

In 2011 his numbers took a turn for the worse. He finished 7-13 with 4.76 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Part of the reason for these poor numbers was because of his increase in walks- going from 47 in 2010 to 68 in 2011, and because of a decreasing number of strikeouts- going from 141 in 2010 to just 94 in 2011. Another issue for Hammel is that he is prone to giving up home runs, despite being a “groundball pitcher”: 36 have come in Coors Field however.

Hammel will fill in the back-end of the rotation for the Orioles. Despite the move out of Coors Field, it will still be difficult for him to produce mediocre results, especially being in the AL East. Hammel will definitely have a chance to eat a lot of innings for the Orioles though. I expect him to have an ERA of around 4.70 and a WHIP of about 1.40- based on his career averages. Even though he has some familiarity with the AL East, he still will have an adjustment period based on the fact that he will be expected to pitch a lot of innings for the O’s. His home run rate will also still likely be high, somewhere around 1.20 HR/9 is a reasonable projection. I also expect him to still have a low strikeout rate, somewhere around 6.00 K/9, and walk rate of about 3.10 BB/9.

With Matt Lindstrom we get a solid setup man who also has some closing experience. Lindstrom made his debut in 2007 with the Florida Marlins, posting a 3.09 ERA and an 8.03 K/9. After 2007, he had an increasing ERA each year and a decreasing K/9 to about 7.00 K/9. In 2011, In December of 2010, Lindstrom was traded to the Rockies and officially become their setup man. In 2011, he posted very solid numbers- finishing with 3.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Despite a decrease in his K/9 to 6.0, his BB/9 fell to 2.3.

With that said, Lindstrom has a chance to be a very reliable bullpen piece for the O’s this season. He should be able to fill-in as the setup man for Jim Johnson and also has a possibility of taking some save opportunities in the case of injury of ineffectiveness. His numbers should rise from last year though, based on the fact that he has always pitched in the NL and that the AL East can sometimes really hurt pitcher’s numbers. An ERA of around 3.40-3.50 is very reasonable, with a WHIP of about 1.30. If he can keep his walks down, then he should be able to survive the season with average numbers.

In the end, the Orioles lose their most reliable pitcher and gain a pitcher who can fit in the back of the rotation and a solid setup man. Overall, I think the Orioles got the best part of the deal. It should be interesting to see who replaces Guthrie as the “number 1” in the rotation, but anyone in the rotation has a chance. Hammel will be under team control for the next few years, unlike Guthrie, who is a Free Agent after the 2012 Season. With the addition of Lindstrom, the bullpen has become slightly stronger and it gives the Orioles a more reliable setup man than Kevin Gregg.

With Spring Training coming, the Orioles may finally be done with making newsworthy transactions. But with new GM Dan Duquette, he could have a few more moves going on behind the scenes.

Looking Ahead: The 2012 Orioles Rotation

With Spring Training less than a month away it looks like the Orioles have a lot of spots open in the rotation. There aren’t many surprise candidates for the rotation, but there are a few additions to the ballclub.

After Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles have rotation spots 2-5 up for grabs. The O’s have acquired a few pitchers during the off-season, including the international signings of LHP Tsuyoshi Wada and LHP Wei-Yin Chen. In addition to Wada and Chen, the Orioles traded for journeyman Dana Eveland.

Those aren’t the only candidates for rotation spots. The Orioles also have Jake Arrieta, Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, Tommy Hunter, Chris Tillman, Brad Bergeson, and Alfredo Simon.

Here is what I think the Orioles 2012 rotation will be:

Jeremy Guthrie - Guthrie has been the Orioles most consistent starter since 2008, making at least 30 starts each season. He also has won 10 games each year, except for last year, when he only won 9. Even though he has lead the American lead in losses in 2009 and 2011, he is the best the Orioles have to offer right now and he does have to go up against other number 1 pitchers, which hurts Guthrie’s numbers.

Wei-Yin Chen - Chen, who is only 26 years-old, is the one of the most recent signings by the Orioles. He has posted great numbers in the Japan Central League, with an average of a 2.48 ERA and an average WHIP of 1.06. I know that Chen’s numbers will not come close to the stats he posted in Japan, but it shouldn’t be a terrible season for Wei-Yin. It will be interesting to see how many innings he will be able to throw with the Orioles as he makes his transition to Major League Baseball.

Zach Britton - Britton was drafted by the Orioles in the 3rd round of the 2006 Draft out of Weatherford High School. He made his debut last season taking the rotation spot of Brian Matusz. In his Major League debut, Britton threw 6 innings of 1-run baseball and earned his first career victory. He had a great first-half to the 2011 season, posting an ERA under 4.00 until July 8th. Britton’s second-half ended up being miserable, as his ERA rose to 4.61 by the end of the season. Besides a rising ERA, he was also sent down the Minors to work on his mechanics. Britton’s sophomore season should be an interesting one to watch. Like Brian Matusz, Britton will have something to prove this year, trying to show that his 2011 first-half is what the real Zach Britton will pitch like. Britton will most likely have an innings cap for the 2012 season.

Jake Arrieta - Even though Arrieta is coming off a season-ending surgery, where he got a bone spur removed from his right elbow, I still expect him to compete for a spot at the end of the rotation. Arrieta did finish with 10 wins last season, despite his season ending in August. Last year he only posted a 5.05 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, which are much higher than league averages, I expect him to post better numbers this year, with an ERA below 5.00 and a WHIP below 1.40.

Brian Matusz - The 4th pick in the 1st round of the 2008 MLB Draft, Matusz was looked at as the potential ace of the Orioles staff. He definitely looked the part, dominating the Minor Leagues and making 8 starts for the Orioles in 2009. In 2010, Matusz struggled for the 1st half of the season and the month of July. However, once August hit he caught fire. Matusz went 7-1 from August 4th until the end of the season. 2011 looked like a bright future for Brian, but it went in the completely wrong direction for his development. Like Jeff said in an earlier article, Matusz was a little unlucky and injuries and a loss in velocity caused his numbers to decline greatly. I expect a bounce-back season from Matusz, hopefully the off-season will allow him to regain confidence and recover from any injuries.

Another legitimate contender for the 5th rotation spot is Tsuyoshi Wada. I view Wada as a Koji Uehara-type who will have a slighty difficult transition to the States.

However, all of these pitchers mentioned early have a chance to start a game in 2012. It is impossible to exactly predict injuries or break-out seasons. There may also be inconsistency, which Brian Matusz had last season. Another question is, will Jeremy Guthrie finally be traded this season?

This may be a tough year for the Orioles, with the 4 other AL East teams having very competitive teams and decent farm systems, but hopefully the Orioles younger pitchers will continue to develop so the O’s will have a formidable rotation in the future.

Will Jeremy Guthrie Be Traded This Offseason?

This will hopefully be a new feature on Warehouse Worthy where loyal readers get an opportunity to guest post on the blog.  I have been on the west coast since last Sunday, and I appreciate a good friend Jonathan helping out by writing a great post about Jeremy Guthrie.  If you're interested in posting on the blog, send us an e-mail at WarehouseWorthy@gmail.com       - Jeff

The Orioles have made no secret of their desire to stockpile starting pitchers.  Tsuyoshi Wada and Dana Eveland are both Orioles and Wie-Yin Chen could soon follow.  It’s not even New Years yet.  Add those names to a stable of possible starters that includes Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, Brad Bergeson, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton, Troy Patton, Jim Johnson, Alfredo Simon, and of course Jeremy Guthrie.  While, of course, some of these names will inevitably be destined for the bullpen, at this point there is potentially thirteen viable starting pitching candidates for five spots.  That number should continue to grow.

Some have wondered if these moves are a means to provide flexibility for the Orioles to trade their ace-by-default Jeremy Guthrie.  This is more than just conjecture.


Since being stolen from the impatient Cleveland Indians, Guthrie has been a symbol of consistency, starting 30 or more games every season and pitching over 200 innings the past three years.  He is in the last year of his contract and will be thirty-three years old when his contract expires.  It seems logical that Guthrie will be traded.


But not so fast.


The easy answer to why a trade will not happen is that last season the next closest thing to Guthrie’s 208 innings pitched was Britton’s 154 and it keeps dropping from there.  There is simply no one to replace him in terms of innings and production.  It is hard to imagine Buck Showalter would allow the Orioles to go into next season with one starter who eclipsed 150 innings and four other starters who were not even close to that number.  Furthermore, Dan Duquette has been quoted as saying that he wants the team to be over .500 next year.


There is another, more complicated, reason to why he will not be traded. The market indicates that the Orioles will simply never get what they want for him.  Although pitching is always a premium that does not absolutely mean a valuable return.


Let’s look at the Shaun Marcum trade as a comparison.   Before the 2011 MLB season, the Jays were able to nab top prospect Brett Lawrie, a guy who was ranked anywhere from 40-54 on top prospect lists in 2011 (and played pretty well in limited time with the Jays).  It seemed like a fair trade for Marcum who was only 28 year old at the time of the trade with a full two years left on his contract.  On closer examination, Marcum’s stats are not too far off from Jeremy Guthrie’s 2010 season (give Marcum 40 more strikeouts and Guthrie a few more innings).  At that time Jeremy Guthrie also had two years left on his contract.  See where I am going with this?


If the Orioles wanted to trade Guthrie, he should have been traded prior to the 2011 season.  Milwaukee was in a frenzy for starting pitching and like every offseason, so was everyone else.  The free agent pitching market looked something like Cliff Lee and then . . . Freddy Garcia?  Guthrie’s value was high and so was his tradability.  He had lowered his WHIP to a career low 1.16 the season before and had pitched almost 210 innings of sub-4.00 ERA baseball.   Now I am not insinuating that trading Guthrie would have absolutely netted a player of Lawrie’s caliber.  Marcum was younger and flashier at the time of trade.  What I am indicating is that by waiting Guthrie’s value has been sapped.  He has one year left on his contract, will be 33 years old during the season, is coming off of an average year (although good by Orioles rotation standards), and is lost in an offseason that, if nothing else, is deeper in free agent pitching than last season (especially if you include international talent).

Will Guthrie be traded?  It seriously could happen, pitching is always a premium and teams will always pay for pitching, especially a pitcher with Guthrie’s durability.  If a team is willing to trade a high upside, near ready prospect for a guy with one year left on his contract, then the trade is likely.  I just doubt it.

- Jonathan