Thoughts on the Season

I was planning it out in my head.  I had pored through the stats and made my conclusions about whether or not Hammel's breakthrough was real or not.  I changed my mind though.

There will be time later to address Hammel's season and whether or not it's legitimate.  Other writers have addressed the Hammel issue recently so I would search out their pieces on the matter.

I'm just going to use this space to ramble about the start, the next 14 games and what we can expect going forward.  The O's offense has been, well alright thus far.  Lots of strikeouts and lots of home runs to this point.  Timely hitting hasn't exactly been a strength to this point, and the team has difficulty manufacturing runs.  So how has the team been successful?

The pitching has been ridiculous.  We addressed the bullpen a bit in a previous post, and talked about some of the under-performing pitchers as well.  We might look at a similar post for the starting rotation in the near future, but I'd like to have a start or two more per pitcher before making any judgments.  So from a rough impression standpoint there are a few things most O's fans have noticed.

Arrieta looks like a new pitcher, showing really good stuff and locating his pitches fairly well.  Fans seemed disheartened when he had a rough inning in Los Angeles, but those kind of stumbles are to be expected.  Arrieta is still a young pitcher and needs time to develop further.  It is however, interesting to see him pitch well in terms of stuff.

Hammel and Hunter are interesting cases as well.  Hammel I think, will regress a bit but it looks like he has made some fundamental changes to his approach.  Mike Podhorzer of Fangraphs wrote up on Hammel's surging K and GB rates, both good signs for the rest of the season.  Hunter on the other hand is nowhere near this good, and will likely fall in his familiar 4 to 5 range in terms of ERA by the end of the year.  These two look like classic regression candidates, but I think one will fall while the other holds steady.

Just want to take a brief moment to mention Wei-Yin Chen's hot start.  We hear at Warehouse Worthy were high on him in the offseason, and he's making us look good by performing well.  Only time will tell how he'll do once the league adjusts to him.

Finally, the O's have a really tough schedule coming up the next 14 games.  The O's have won games they're supposed to win so far, and stealing some games against TEX, BOS and NYY will show that they are really going to compete this season.  Hopefully the next two weeks or so show us a team that can compete with the "big boys" just like how they competed tonight.


Editor's Note - I'll be travelling in China for the next 12 days, so Chad will be in charge of the site.  See you all in two weeks.

Opening Day Magic

Friend of the blog Jonathan Foreman wrote up a nice piece about Opening Day at Camden Yards.  In my absence, Jon represented the blog at the game and passed along a few notes for fellow O's fans.  Enjoy!

At the Orioles opening day game (a true opening day, unlike those tricky home openers the last two seasons) on Friday a friend turned to me and said, “this is surreal.”  I agreed.

Maybe it was Rick Sutcliffe throwing a perfect strike for the opening pitch to Chris Hoiles, or the scoreboard error before the game that had Brian Roberts in the lineup, and J.J. Hardy playing DH, or new PA announcer Ryan Wagner (who for my money did a fantastic job), or the streaker on the field in the top of the forth inning wearing nothing but shorts and a cape, or the marriage proposal third base side in the stands. (Editor's note - I think we all know that streaking involves nudity).

There are a lot of maybes, but there is one definite: opening day is a packed house of Orioles fans.  It is something that reminds my generation of 1996 and 1997, and of the Cal Ripken years in general at Camden Yards.  We celebrate the twentieth year anniversary of Camden Yards this year, and opening day is the one moment that it feels like the first few years, not the last fourteen.

With that said here are some positive notes from the game:

• Anyone who did not see the game will look at Jake Arrieta’s stat line, but his performance was even more impressive than his stats.  There were a few questionable calls on balls that should have been strikes that lead to his early walks.  He was throwing consistently in the mid-90s, and most of his pitches looked crisp.  What surprised me though was how good he looked defensively (including snagging a plastic bag that was floating past him and putting it in his back pocket).

• The ball was flying off of J.J. Hardy’s bat today, but Nick Markakis looked like the best hitter on either team today.  He looks much stronger than last season, where in the first game he looked malnourished.  A homerun, triple, and walk is a good way to start the season for a guy who needs to recapture his power stroke (and just might have). (Editor's note - Markakis added a 2nd HR tonight as well.  This is good).

• There are a lot of Chris Davis bashers out there, and he has to prove that he can hit major league pitching.  However, there is little question about his glove.  Davis made a diving catch while keeping the tip of his toe on the bag on a Mark Reynolds throw that would have been Reynold’s first error of the year, but instead was an out at first.   Also, an overzealous Adam Jones threw a cannon to first to try to catch a tagging up runner and Davis leapt in the air to make the catch on a ball that likely would have advanced the Twin’s runners (and hit Buck Showalter in the face). (Editor's Note - Not to be denied, Reynolds got that error back tonight by misplaying a ground ball).

• The ballpark upgrades make Camden Yards look even better than it did twenty years ago.  Rather than spell all of them out, comment below on which upgrades you feel are the most welcome this year.
  
  
  - Jon Foreman

Spring Surprise - Pitching

Chen warming up before his start. Courtesy of @EddieInTheYard

So far this spring there has been a big surprise coming out of Orioles camp.  Various O's pitchers have shown improvement over last year not only in performance but also in health and ability it seems.  Guys like Matusz and Arrieta have shown solid improvement on the radar gun and seem to be healthy.  Arrieta claimed that he had not felt this good since turning pro which is a troubling and positive sign all wrapped up in one bundle.

Matusz has sat in the high 80s to low 90s this spring, with solid secondary stuff and good command.  He's ranged from 87 to 94 sitting mostly around 89 or 90.  Matusz put up another solid outing today against the Phillies going 4 scoreless innings, giving up just 4 hits with 4 Ks.  Matusz threw 53 pitches, 70% of which were strikes.

Arrieta who threw the other day against the Rays reportedly hit 97 on the gun and looked good doing it according to those in attendance.  If Arrieta is healthy and has his command figured out, he could be a reliable option for the club in the rotation.

Jason Hammel, one of the newest Orioles hit 94 on the gun in his start.  Hammel wasn't as impressive as his younger teammates, but it was a good beginning to his Spring.

Wei-Yin Chen (one of my underdog candidates for the top of the rotation) looked good in his debut throwing strikes on a ridiculous 76% of his pitches.  Chen sat in the low 90s, a velocity that bodes well for the dynamic lefty.  Keep in mind that Chen is just 26 years old, and is just entering his prime.



Overall, the pitching has been solid this Spring which is a good sign as that was the biggest weakness facing the team going into this season.  That said, it is Spring Training, so don't take too much out of it.  It is a good sign, but let's not get carried away digging into the meaning of a team ERA below 3 in Spring Training.  It should also be noted that offense is down all across Florida (with the exception of Detroit, Pitt and Toronto).

Hopefully they keep it up when the games count.