Why Not Us? (#WhyNotUs)

Last night I watched the ESPN 30 for 30 movie about the Boston Red Sox improbable comeback in the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees.  While the stakes were significantly higher for Boston at that point than they are for us now, their motto rings true for O's fans.

Why Not Us?

Baseball is a sport where change is slow, teams must build up organically and players often "regress to the mean".  Unlike any of the other big 4 major US sports, baseball is a game where strategy and planning is vital.  A 162 game season demands teams make hundreds if not thousands of personnel decisions each year.  Dan Duquette, Buck Showalter and the rest of the Oriole staff have continually put this team in a position to succeed this season, and the team has paid them back with wins.  Nobody saw this coming, heck, we had the over/under for the season at 74 wins.  74 wins and we weren't even the low end of the predictions.

So why not us then?  Well, our pitching isn't terribly reliable.  We're hitting Nate McLouth third in our lineup that occasionally features other offensive juggernauts like Omar Quintanilla.  Half the starting lineup at any given point this season was comprised of bench guys, role players, AAAA guys or minor league journeymen.

We've won a completely unsustainable number of 1-run and extra inning games.  If you listen to the industry pundits, our run differential is the most absurd thing they've ever encountered in a winning team.

After 15 years O's fans have begun to expect the team to falter.  Every dip in performance is expected to be the beginning of the end for this fairy tale.  When the team struggled earlier this summer O's fans jumped off the bandwagon because it's not fashionable to support a team like the Orioles.

Our Time

This is our time damnit.  Adam Jones has risen to the level of the elite CF in baseball, and is the superstar that Baltimore and the Orioles have missed since guys named Ripken, Murray, and Robinson gave O's fans something to cheer about.  The young guys like Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, Dylan Bundy and more have fans buzzing about the minor leagues and flocking to the yard to see these kids play.

Wei-Yin Chen has been a huge find for the O's, as has Jason Hammel's resurgence.  Guys like Steve Johnson, Miguel Gonzalez and others have stepped in and filled holes with good starts for the team.  They've battled through injuries and their strong bullpen has given the team 51 wins when they lead after 7 innings.

This team isn't sexy.  This isn't Detroit with their 800 pounds of man hitting 3-4-5.  This isn't the Angels who have the former and current best players in baseball in their lineup everyday.  We're not the Yankees with a $200 Million payroll.  We don't have a reliable rotation like the Nationals or famous owners like the Dodgers.

This Orioles team is fun, and above all else, they win.  I don't know if this team will catch the Yankees and Rays to win the division.  They certainly could, but they might not.  I don't know if this team will beat out the Tigers or White Sox and Angels to get in the wild card this season.  They certainly could, but they might not.

I'm not really worried about the O's making the playoffs this season.  This season has been fun and I'm just trying to take it all in.  Hopefully this is just the beginning of a series of runs into the playoffs for the team, and I'm just glad to be a part of it.  Are you?

There's magic in the air folks.

So Far, So Good

Just a few days ago the Orioles called upon their top position prospect Manny Machado.

Machado, the 3^rd overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft, was called up to play third base for the O’s, a position where he has limited experience.

Scouts were surprised by the early call-up for the 20 year-old Machado, because his numbers in Double-A were sub-par.

So far the call-up of Machado has paid off.  Manny is hitting .417, with 2 HR, and 5 RBI. He has also provided an upgrade on defense from Wilson Betemit.

However, O’s fans should still temper their expectations. It’s not going to be a piece of cake for Manny. There is no doubt that Manny has started off great, but there will be struggles to come. It takes a while to adjust to playing every day in the Major Leagues. Other teams will also make adjustments to Machado, figuring out his weaknesses at the plate (yes, he will have some weaknesses).

I’m not saying that Machado will slump for a long period, but he is human. He will have struggles, but I’m sure he will have many successes.

Machado is going to have an extremely successful career.  But for now limit your expectations. There will be an adjustment period for Manny.

However, the call-up of Manny Machado has brought a new sense of belief to O’s fans. It shows fans that the organization is doing everything it can to put a winning product on the field.

The next two months will be exciting to watch. Hopefully Manny can make a significant contribution to the Orioles playoff run.

The O’s may not be done with big name call-ups. There could be another top prospect called up in September...

 Dylan Bundy?!

(Don't) Blame It On Angelos

I may catch some flack from some O's fans for saying this.  I don't mean to offend those of you that this post addresses, it's just that... well, we've gotten lazy.  You see, I've been watching the Orioles lose for the past 14 years just like the rest of you.

I've been listening to Orioles fans curse the name of Peter Angelos for years now.  After all, it's his fault for not putting a winning team on the field, or so the logic goes.  Now listen, I'm not here to say that Angelos is without blame.

The truth is, I honestly don't know the full extent to which the Angelos family is involved in baseball / business decisions.  I would imagine it's safe to say they have significant input given their positions within the organization:

Peter Angelos - Chairman of the Board / Chief Executive Officer (Owner)
John Angelos - Executive Vice President

The problem is, we don't know what input or decision-making power the Angelos' have in baseball or business decisions.  There has been A LOT of speculation, but at the end of the day we just plain don't know.

The most egregious complaint in my mind however, is about the money the team spends.  Fans often claim that Peter Angelos doesn't want to spend money, that all he cares about is pocketing revenues.  To address this, let's look at some data from the past few years...


FACT 1 - The Orioles were the last team not named Yankees to lead MLB in payroll.
According to this website the Orioles outspent the New York Yankees by about $6 Million in 1998, spending a total of $71,860,921 on player contracts.  To give some context, that would be the equivalent of $101,070,212.38 in 2012 dollars.

FACT 2 - In 2000 the Orioles spent the equivalent of $108,451,977.36.
The Baltimore Orioles 2000 payroll came in at $81,447,435 putting them in 4th place behind the Yankees, Dodgers & Braves.  That doesn't sound like an owner pocketing money to me.

FACT 3 - The Orioles have spent over $90 Million on payroll within the past 5 years.
Hard to believe, but in 2007 the Orioles payroll came in at $93,554,808 according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  In today's dollars that comes out to roughly $103,489,831.86.  Even at $93 Million the O's weren't among the top five in the league, coming in at 10th overall in terms of payroll.


Listen, I get it.  Payrolls of $67 Million, $73 Million, and $84 Million don't exactly make us believe that they're putting in a full effort to build the team.  The facts though are that as the team gets younger, more of the players are cost-controlled and will receive big raises when they are closer to free agency (a la Adam Jones). The team likely can and very well might expand payroll as attendance picks up and the roster demands it.  I just don't see using player salaries as a good point of emphasis when complaining about the team's leadership.

So, sorry Orioles fans.  You're going to have to find something else to complain about because the facts just don't support your opinions here.  If you're interested in looking at inflation adjusted values, I'd recommend using this pretty cool & intuitive tool: Inflation Calculator.

Exploring Trades and What the O’s Should Do

With less than four hours until MLB’s Trade Deadline, the O’s have yet to make a move but are currently engaging in talks with different teams.

The biggest name that the O’s have been targeting so far is SP Joe Blanton of the Philadelphia Phillies. The O’s have been in constant talks with the Phillies the past few days. The biggest issue is that the Phillies want the O’s to pay the rest of the $3M Blanton is owed the rest of the season. However, if the O’s do not want to pay the rest of Blanton’s contract, then the Phillies want a more highly-regarded prospect such as a Jonathan Schoop.

Trading Schoop for two more months of Joe Blanton would be a trade the O’s should never ever make.

With that said, trading prospects is always something teams need to look into before they make the move. Some trades can make or break a franchise.

In this column we will talk about the impact of trading prospects for major leaguers.

There have been a few deals where trading prospects for above-average or average major leaguers have to yet to have a determined outcome.

Take for example one of the trades that the Boston Red Sox made the past off-season.

Boston traded Josh Reddick and two minor leaguers for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney. While Sweeney has done a great job filling in for Boston this season, Reddick has enjoyed a breakout season for Oakland and leads the team in the majority of offensive categories.

The jury is still out on this trade however, because Bailey has been injured, but still has the potential to be a top-5 closer.

Another trade that has yet to be determined is the deal the Reds and Padres made this off-season for Mat Latos. The Reds received SP Mat Latos from San Diego in exchange for C Yasmani Grandal, 1B/OF Yonder Alonso, SP Edinson Volquez, and RP Brad Boxberger. Latos is currently 9-3 for the Reds and is helping lead them to a playoff berth. Grandal recently strained his quad and will likely land on the DL, Alonso has had his ups and downs so far this season, Volquez has been extremely inconsistent, and Boxberger has been dominating Triple-A.

The jury is still out on this trade because five years from now Grandal, Alonso, and Boxberger could be three of the best players on the Friars.

The one thing to notice about these two trades is that they both happened last off-season. Therefore there hasn’t been enough time to judge their impact on each respective team.

It takes at least five years to determine whether a trade was “won” or “lost”.

One trade O’s fans are familiar with is the Erik Bedard trade. This could be considered one of the most lopsided trades in history.

The O’s sent Erik Bedard to the Mariners for OF Adam Jones, SP Chris Tillman, RP George Sherrill, RP Kam Mickolio, and LHP Tony Butler.

Bedard was coming off a career year and was arbitration-eligible for the first time. The O’s sold as high as they could, getting a great haul for the lefty.

Jones had played some for the Mariners, but they were never sure if he would turn out to be the player they envisioned him to be. Tillman was one of the Mariners’ top prospects and had a lot of promise. Sherrill was an older relief pitcher who the Mariners believed was not really needed. Mickolio and Butler were two pitching prospects also added to the deal.

Four years later I don’t think any GM would trade Adam Jones for Erik Bedard. At least I hope not...

It took a few years to develop, but Jones has become one of the premier players in the American League.

Besides the Bedard trade, there are so many more trades that have worked out in the favor of the team getting the prospects.

But back to the Orioles… since this is an Orioles blog and all.

If the Orioles want to trade for an impact player, they have to really think about the risks of doing it.

If the Phillies want Jonathan Schoop for Joe Blanton, we shouldn’t even come close to considering it. Schoop could end up being our future second baseman, while Blanton is a free agent five days after the World Series. I don’t think two months of Blanton is worth five years of control of Jonathan Schoop. Blanton is a homer-prone pitcher, already giving up 22 this year. As one insider said “he’s an above-average Tommy Hunter”.

I would only take Joe Blanton if the Orioles had to send a low-ceiling prospect or future utility-man, as well as the Phillies paying the $3M owed to Blanton.

Besides Blanton, it has been reported that the Orioles have been interested in Phillies OF’s Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, and Juan Pierre.

Victorino and Pence are reportedly on their way out, Victorino going to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pence to the San Francisco Giants.

However, Pierre is still available and would be a good acquisition for the O’s. He will not cost much at all and could play left field and hit lead-off for the Orioles.

There is one thing the Orioles need to try to do at the deadline though and that is upgrade their starting rotation. If they want to continue to stay in the playoff hunt they will need to upgrade their pitching. But to upgrade their pitching they should not trade any of their top prospects.

The main point that the Orioles should stick to is that their top prospects are not available in trade. 

Making a trade that involves their top prospects could possibly help the team now, but what will it do to the team in five years?

If the Orioles do trade in the next four hours or so, they need to really calculate the risks of trading their prospects

Before making any trade, they really need to calculate the pros and cons.

Hopefully the O's can make some upgrades today!

Stayed tuned to Warehouse Worthy for news on O’s acquisitions!

Recap of the Orioles/A’s Series and The Week Ahead

After losing the first 2 games of the series against the scorching-hot A’s, the Orioles, behind Wei-Yin Chen, were able to win the last game of the series 6 to 1. Chen pitched 5.2 innings and struck out 12. With the win, Chen improves to 9-6 on the year.

To recap the series the Orioles started the series against Oakland on Friday night, where Zach Britton faced off against A’s rookie right-hander Jarrod Parker. This game went back-and-forth, with the A’s getting off to a 5-0 lead by the 2^nd inning. However, the O’s rallied back with a homerun by Chris Davis in the 2^nd inning and a homerun by Adam Jones in the 5^th inning. Jones homerun put the O’s up 6-5. In the 6^th inning the A’s pinch hit Seth Smith for Johnny Gomes and Smith hit a base-clearing double to put the Athletics up 8-6. However, the O’s battled back in the 8^th inning and eventually took the lead 9-8. The A’s came up in the 9^th against O’s closer Jim Johnson, who has pitched extremely solid this season, and scored six runs off of him. The O’s fell 14-9.

In the second game of the series, Tommy Hunter squared off against Bartolo Colon. The game was kept scoreless until the 4^th inning, when smoking-hot A’s OF Yoenis Cespedes hit a two-run homerun off of Hunter. Hunter, who has been plagued by the long-ball all year, gave up another homerun to A’s 1B Chris Carter in the 6^th. The O’s lone run came in the 9^th inning when Nick Markakis homered.

Thankfully for the Orioles, Chen was able to put together a great outing today and Matt Wieters finally showed some sign of life with a three-run homerun in the 3^rd inning off of A’s success-story Travis Blackley. Recently-acquired Omar Quintanilla also homered for the O’s.

(Another note from the today’s game is that the Orioles started OF Lew Ford in left-field today and he batted 5^th. Ford hasn’t played in the big leagues since 2007, when he was a member of the Minnesota Twins. It’s great to see Ford make it all the way back to “The Show”.)

However, the two losses against Oakland did hurt the O’s in the Wild Card Standings. They are still 2.5 games back of Oakland and Anaheim.

The Orioles have some very crucial games in the upcoming week. If the O’s want to stay at the top of the playoff hunt they must win both series against the Yankees and the Rays.

The next week could really determine whether the O’s stay in the playoff hunt or return to their former ways of being at the bottom of the cellar in the AL East.