Saturday, March 24, 2012

The Orioles Should Trade for Mike Pelfrey

According to this post on MLBTradeRumors, the New York Mets want to trade Mike Pelfrey.  The Orioles should trade for him for a variety of reasons.

Why Pelfrey?

Pelfrey has thrown no less than 184 innings since 2008, showing flashes of the potential he once had.  As recent as 2010 Pelfrey pitched very well with an ERA of 3.66, which is supported by a FIP of 3.82.  This wasn't exactly a one-hit wonder, as Pelfrey pitched to a 3.72 ERA in 2008 over 200 IP.  Again, a FIP of 3.96 suggests that the ERA was not fluky like some might believe.

Don't get me wrong, Pelfrey pitched pretty horribly in both 2009 and 2011, and isn't exactly a dynamic guy with a K/9 of just 5 over the past 4 years.  However, Pelfrey has done a great job of getting groundballs, last year being an aberration if you look at his career stats.  Through 2009 Pelfrey average a GB/FB ratio of 1.7 which fell to just 1.31 last year.  If Pelfrey could bring that figure back to his career average he could succeed in Camden Yards despite gaudy strikeout numbers.  We know this can be successful because Zach Britton posted a FIP of 4 last season despite striking out just 5.66 batters per nine innings.

Makings of a Trade

The O's could propose a trade of Kevin Gregg for Mike Pelfrey.  This trade removes Gregg from the O's books, and more importantly from coming into games that matter.  The Mets get a guy who can make sure that DJ Carrasco and Pedro Beato start the season in AAA, getting more experience before making full-time bids in the bullpen.  From a contract standpoint it makes a lot of sense too.  Pelfrey will make $5.675 Million this season, while Gregg is set to make $5.8 Million.  Gregg will benefit from moving to the NL, and Pelfrey will benefit greatly from getting out of New York.

I'm not going to lie and say that Pelfrey is a tremendous upgrade over what the O's have.  Or that he's even  lock to make the rotation.  However, this trade could be mutually beneficial for both teams.  The O's could put Pefrey in the rotation, assuring that Hunter, Wada, and Simon move to the bullpen (where they belong).

This is a gamble worth taking.  Why?  Gregg isn't exactly the most beloved Oriole if you ask the fans.  Similarly, the O's wnt to make sure they put their young pitchers in a position to succeed.  With Zach Britton out for a while, this type of gamble could pay huge dividends.  What's the worst case scenario?  Mike Pelfrey ends up being as bad as Kevin Gregg?  I think the O's could live with that.  We Already are.

1 comment:

  1. I agree with the comment of trading Kevin Gregg for Mike Pelfrey because Gregg is not our closer any more and I like Jim Johnson. And the Orioles do need another decent starter in the rotation. And even if Pelfrey is as bad as Gregg was at least we did not give up much for him.