A Prince in Baltimore?

So far this off-season has produced some shocking results: First-baseman Albert Pujols signing a 10-year deal worth $254 million with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, as well as starting pitcher C.J. Wilson signing a five-year, $77.5 million deal with the Angels.

Other countless free agents have signed as well, ranging from shortstop Jose Reyes to closer Joe Nathan.

However, there is still one prized player left: First-baseman Prince Fielder (pictured above)

Fielder is only 27-years-old and is coming off a year where he hit .299 with 38 home runs and 120 runs batted in. He also finished 3rd in the NL MVP race.

What isn’t there to like about Prince? 

Well there are many arguments to giving him a long-term deal worth at least $150 million.

Since Fielder started in the league he has never had a defensive Wins above replacement (dWAR) rating higher than -0.3.

Another issue with Fielder is his weight. He is listed at 275 lbs. Many scouts believe he will have to play for an American League club because they think he will eventually have to be a full-time designated hitter.

Despite these beliefs, I believe Prince Fielder would be a great addition to the Orioles.

He is definitely a very-large guy, however I think if we play him at first base day-in and day-out it will prolong his value.

When it comes to defense, I know Fielder isn’t a great defender but he will be more than able to make up for it with his offensive value.

Since 2007, Fielder has hit over 30 home runs every year and he had more than 100 runs batted in, except for 2010, when he finished with 83. 83 runs batted in would have still been a team-high for the Orioles. Ty Wigginton finished with a team-high 76 runs batted in.

This is a crude estimation, simply used to illustrate Fielder's power. - Jeff

This picture above shows all of the home runs that Prince Fielder would've hit out of Camden Yards since 2008. It shows 3 home runs would have been "warehouse worthy". Thanks to Jeff for creating this!


Fielder has also increased his plate-discipline greatly. In 2010, he finished with 138 strikeouts and 114 bases on balls. In 2011, he finished with 106 strikeouts and 107 bases on balls. He also lead baseball with 32 intentional walks in 2011.

As mentioned earlier, Fielder is only 27.  Statistics have shown that most players are in their “prime” from ages 26-32.  Signing Fielder now would give us at least five years of a top- player in his prime.

Unlike Pujols, if the Orioles were to give Fielder a long-term contract the longest it would be is 10 years, at which Fielder would be 38, since his birthday is in May.

However, I do not expect Fielder to get a ten-year-deal in this market. I expect a deal ranging from 6 to 8 years.

Orioles fans can just imagine what it would be like to have Fielder in our line-up. He would give the Orioles a feared clean-up hitter, as well our best first-baseman since Rafael Palmeiro.


Note - This post was written by Chad, posted by Jeff due to technical difficulties.

Jim Johnson: Closer or Starter?

Jim Johnson has held down a prominent role in the Orioles' Bullpen since coming up for good  in 2008.  However, Jim made a majority of his appearances in the minors as a starter, starting 52 games from 2006 - 2007. If you listen to Jim Palmer, Johnson is a starter in reliever's clothes. With Kevin Gregg having a $6M option for next season based on 50 games finished, we're looking at Johnson either in the rotation or closing. He saved 9 games at the end of last year anyway.

So rotation or bullpen? Issue 1: sure Johnson started in the minors, but that was over 4 years ago. And, he never threw more than 156 innings in the minors. He'd be on a strict pitch count to say the least. After throwing 91 innings last year, it's conceivable that he could go somewhere between 120 and 150 this season depending on health.

What about performance? Well he struck out only 5.74 batters per 9 innings last year, so he would likely be a contact pitcher. Also, he would have to rely on his secondary stuff rather than the fastball heavy repertoire he's leaned on lately. Yes, he has 3 good pitches. Yes they could play in the rotation. But they would all likely take a hit, with his fastball velocity likely dropping from 95 to 92 (where it was when he was starting).

At the end of the day, Johnson holds more value to the Orioles and other teams as a reliever. Potentially a very good closer. While I don't blame the Orioles for considering it, I doubt he makes it out of spring training in the rotation.

Interesting Links

This post may seem like a cop-out, but I promise, a regular post is coming tomorrow.  In the meantime, take a look at some 'experts' thoughts on the Orioles' top prospects for 2012:

Fangraphs

MinorLeagueBall.com

Baseball Prospectus

MLBprospectportal.com

TopProspectAlert.com

BaseballInstinct.com

Also, here's an interesting article from a writer I really admire about the Angels' signing of Pujols.

Jonah Keri on Pujols

Finally, look forward to a post tomorrow, and then sometime next week a more in depth look at O's prospects with the release of the Baseball America Top 10 Prospects list.

Should the O's go after Cespedes?

So far throughout Free Agency the same names have been mentioned: Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and… Yoenis Cespedes.

Yoenis Cespedes (pictured above) is a 26-year-old Cuban outfielder who defected from Cuba to the Dominican Republic this summer. Cespedes’ plan was to finally become a Major League baseball player.

The first thing Cespedes did was send out a promotion video to all 30 MLB teams, a very interesting video to say the least. Here is a link for those of you who haven’t seen it: Cespedes' Showcase (Warning this video contains explicit language).

When it comes to stats, Cespedes has put out some very impressive numbers in his playing career. Since debuting in the Cuban National Series in the 2003-04 season, Cespedes has hit over .300 almost every single year except for 2007-08 season. He also hit 175 home runs in 9 seasons, showing that he clearly has power. Besides hitting, Cespedes has above-average speed, but isn’t known for his stealing ability. In the field Cespedes is an average defender and reports say he has an above average arm.

So far plenty of teams have been interested in the Cuban outfielder. Teams have ranged from the Yankees and Redsox, to teams like the Pirates and the Indians. The Orioles have also expressed interest in Cespedes.

However, the price for Cespedes continues to climb. Reports say it could take $50-60 million to sign him. But should the O’s spend that much money on a player who hasn’t constantly faced major-league competition?

No, the Orioles should not spend that much money on Yoenis Cespedes.

Signing Cespedes would be like signing a player like Mike Cameron. Yes, Cameron was an average to above-average player in his prime, but would he be worth $60 million or more?!?

There is another international prospect that the Orioles should go after though.

19-year-old Cuban outfielder Jorge Soler is not drawing nearly the same amount of attention, but he may be well worth the wait.

Unlike Cespedes, Soler is not major-league ready. Scouts say it will take him 2 or 3 years in the minors, but Soler could turn out to be a better major-league player than Cespedes. Soler is known to have great bat speed and could become a hitter that hits 40 home runs in the major-leagues. Soler will also come a lot cheaper. Soler is expected to get a deal similar to Rangers centerfielder Leonys Martin, who signed a 5-year major-league contract worth $15.5 million.

Soler may not be major-league ready, but he has a ton of raw potential and having a 6’3” frame, he has a ton of potential as a power hitter.

Signing someone like Jorge Soler will be cheaper than spending money on Yoenis Cespedes and Dan Duquette will stick to his word by focusing on more international signing and development of prospects.

Taylor Teagarden's Acquisition

In case you missed it, the O's acquired Taylor Teagarden this past week.  The trade sent minor league pitcher Randy Henry and a PTBNL for Teagarden, bringing in the catcher to backup Matt Wieters.  Let's quickly compare Teagarden to other options on the market.

First, a note about the trade.  Some Rangers fans are happy about the trade saying Henry was a steal for Teagarden.  Let's call a spade a spade.  Henry is a 21 year old pitcher in A, who's ERA was boosted by playing way over his level in Delmarva for the first part of the year.  It's a win-win for both teams I guess as Teagarden was sufficiently blocked in Texas and Henry had little to no shot at making an impact for the O's.  He's a two pitch pitcher who's trying to add a changeup but it's currently below average.

Taylor Teagarden

Teagarden's career MLB stats look something like: .220/.286/.417 over 4 seasons.  Keep in mind that Teagarden has just 392 PA to his name over that time however, the equivalent of about 1 season.  The average and OBP are nothing to write home about but Teagarden does have some power.  He's hit 16 home runs over those 392 PA, good a HR every 24.5 AB.  The biggest downside for Teagarden is his K rate which is over 35% for his career.  Teagarden is however, well regarded for his defense, so he essentially gives the O's Tatum quality defense with decent power to boot.  I like the (minor) upgrade here.

     

Jorge Posada                           Jason Varitek            

Jorge Posada and Jason Varitek were the two other options being discussed this offseason.  Posada and Varitek hit .235/.315/.398 and .221/.300/.396 last season respectively. Those numbers are relatively comparable to Teagarden, though he does bring more power to the table.  Additionally, Teagarden's defense is head and shoulders above Posada and Varitek given their ages.  The final nail in the coffin here is price.  Posada made over $13M last season and would likely be looking for several million in any deal.  Varitek made $2M and would be looking for a similar amount this year.  Teagarden costs the O's just over $400K for the season, making him not only a better option, but also more efficient.

This was a good move for the O's, and the first trade under Duquette's watch.  Let's see how the rest of the offseason shakes out for the team.