Buck Showalter: Tactical Genius?

Jim Johnson's Dominance

Let's start this conversation by saying that this is going to be one of those stat-heavy posts.  In this case we'll be utilizing the win probability data from fangraphs, which you can find here.  The first point I'd like to note is that according to Win Probability Added, Jim Johnson is the best pitcher in baseball this season with a fairly sizable lead over Justin Verlander.  Here's an explanation of WPA if you're not familiar with the stat.  Not necessarily that important, just something interesting to think about as we look at the bullpen usage more in depth.

Buck Showalter's Bullpen Usage

The stat I really want to focus on is gmLI which basically gives an indication of how intense the situation is when the pitcher enters the game.  Using the same page from before we can sort the pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings in MLB by gmLI.  If you want more info on Leverage Indices and how they work, click on the link in the first sentence of this section.

As you can see, Jim Johnson is tied for 9th in MLB with an average leverage index of 1.79 for the games he enters.  As stated in the fangraphs explanation, anything above 1 is an average leverage appearance, so that figure shows that Buck is using his best pitcher in the most critical situations.  Johnson's 1.79 leverage index leads the Orioles, but looking at the rest of the staff gives more insight into how Buck has used the bullpen.

If we sort out the Orioles' pitchers we can look at the average leverage index when each guy enters the game, and get an idea of who pitches in the highest leverage and lowest leverage appearances.  Johnson paces the O's with a gmLI of 1.79, followed by Strop at 1.71.  These two guys have pitched in the most crucial situations, and their performances have backed up Buck's aggressive usage.

The O's also have a bunch of pitchers between average leverage at 1.00 and 1.16, slightly above average.  From most to least these guys are: Ayala, Lindstrom, O'Day and Patton.  All of these guys have provided quality innings out of the bullpen, though these mainly come earlier in games which might play a role in their lower gmLIs.  At the opposite end of the spectrum Kevin Gregg and Dana Eveland bring up the rear with 0.81 and 0.60 gmLIs.  These are almost certainly a function of their usage, as Gregg rarely pitches in close games and Eveland is the de facto long-man coming in when a starter exits early.

What Does It Mean?

Well to assess the seasons these guys have had, we'll use a stat called ERA-.  Basically ERA- adjusts a pitchers ERA for their league, home park, etc.  For this particular stat a score of 100 would be league average, and the lower your number is the better.  Here are the ERA- stats (among other stats) for the O's pitchers:

Johnson, Lindstrom and Strop have absurd ERA- stats of 29, 31 and 34 respectively, showing that they've been absurdly better than league average to this point.  O'Day and Ayala both also have scores below 50.  This presents an opportunity for Buck to perhaps spread out some of the high leverage situations among these guys as well as they've shown the capability to handle it.  Will they be this good for the whole season?  Probably not.  What we have, and can hope to continue to see is that Buck using his pitchers well. I'm thinking of Buck putting Jim Johnson out there in tie games against the Phils and Yankees earlier this season rather than saving him for the "traditional save chances".

Buck has used the bullpen really well so far this season despite them having to throw a lot of innings.  That said, he needs to continue to manage the bullpen well to put guys in positions to succeed.  Using Johnson as he has allows him to utilize his best pitchers in the most critical situations - giving the O's the best chance to win.  Buck's decision on the lineup and who starts where might be questionable, but his usage of the pitching staff has been really solid so far.

Worst to First: Bullpen Improvements

No, I'm not talking about the Orioles winning the AL East this season.  Nor am I literally saying that they are going from worst to first.  This post is really more about one area where the team has shown vast improvement over last season.

Last season the Orioles bullpen ERA was 4.18, good for 4th worst in MLB, and 2nd worst in the AL behind those pesky Minnesota Twins.  Not to mention that the FIP of 4.31 that group posted shows we could have been even worse.  Those were good times.  No lead was safe, and excitement at the end of games was common (especially for other teams).

This season however, things are looking up.  The bullpen has an ERA of 2.25, the 4th best mark in MLB this season and 2nd best in the AL behind that team from New York.  Granted, FIP calculations (the O's bullpen has a FIP of 3.78 this season) suggest that the 'pen is in for some regression.  Despite this, the bullpen has impressed, and here's how they've done it:

Kevin Gregg

Let's just move on... nothing to see here.

Troy Patton

Oh Buck.  Patton versus left-handed batters: 13 batters faced, 3 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 Ks.  Patton versus right-handed hitters: 18 batters faced, 6 hits, 3 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 Ks.  If we would stop putting Patton in against right-handed hitters he might be able to bring that 4.91 ERA down.

Pedro Strop

Strop has been a pleasant surprise thus far as I imagined he'd have a few more growing pains than he has.  He's sporting a 2.25 ERA with a 2.45 FIP and 2.79 xFIP to prove it's not a fluke.  Good stuff.  He's also striking out a batter an inning and getting 78% groundballs.

Darren O'Day

O'Day is sporting a 1.29 ERA, mostly as a result of his phenomenal peripherals.  O'Day has K and BB rates of 9 and 2.57 batters per 9 innings respectively, and has stranded 100% of the runners on base against him.  I would also expect his 47% GB rate to come up a bit meaning he might be able to sustain some of this success.

Lindstrom, Ayala, Johnson

These three are currently posting a combined ERA of 0.00 over 21 IP.  Ironically, Johnson has pitched pretty poorly, with a low K rate and a high BB rate, but that hasn't caused him to slow down as he leads the AL in saves.  I obviously don't expect all 3 to finish the season with 0.00 ERAs, but thus far they've been impressive.

At this point a perennial weakness looks like it might be a strength for this team.  Honestly, I wasn't sure about the bullpen heading into the season, but 3 of the pickups made this offseason have turned out pretty well so far.  Worst to First, one part of the team at a time.

The Worst Pitcher Is...

Tsuyoshi Wada should be coming off the DL soon, and the question is - does he go in the rotation or the bullpen.  Who does he replace on the roster when he comes back?  Well, the easiest way to determine this is to find out who the worst pitcher is so far.  So, let's get to it...

The Nominees

Brian Matusz

Brian has struggled to start the season  despite showing better stuff and an impressive spring, Matusz has struggled this season.  In his first 2 starts, Matusz has gone just 9.2 IP with walk and K rates of 7.45 and 4.66 respectively.  Matusz has been a bit unlucky (like having Kevin Gregg relieve him), exemplified by his BABIP against of .344 and an xFIP nearly 2 runs lower than his ERA.  Matusz has actually pitched better than his numbers indicate, the biggest issue being his lack of control.  If he can figure out why he can't locate his pitches, he could bounce back nicely.  Matusz's stats:

Troy Patton

Patton currently boasts a 7.71 ERA despite being one of the few relievers with a better K/9 ration than his BB/9 ratio.  xFIP is much more kind to Patton as it suggests his ERA should be somewhere 3.50, more than 4 runs lower than his current ERA.  Patton is a candidate for the worst pitcher on only a surface level.  Patton's stats:

Tommy Hunter

Hunter is the opposite of Patton, a pitcher who has pitched significantly worse than his surface level numbers would indicate.  Hunter currently sports a sparkling 2.77 ERA despite FIP and xFIP having him at 7.06 and 4.66 respectively.  Hunter has cost the Orioles .2 wins already this season according to Fangraphs.  The reasons for this?  A miniscule K rate of 3.46 batters per nine innings is an issue to look forward to for the rest of the season.  Similarly, a regression of his current BABIP against of .194 to the mean (currently .279) would likely result in a worse showing by Hunter going forward.  Hunter's stats:

Kevin Gregg

Where should I start?  Gregg walks .82 batters per inning.  That's 7.36 per 9 innings.  Meanwhile he strikes out only .55 batters per inning.  That's troubling.  His 12.27 ERA is slightly inflated (by a .462 BABIP) as FIP and xFIP have him at 9.45 and 8.17 respectively.  To be fair both of those would be absolutely terrible as well, but there's nothing that I've seen from Gregg that makes me believe that .462 BABIP is an aberration.  I think half the readers of this site could get a hit or walk against him right now.  Gregg's stats (sorry):

The Winner Is...

Kevin Gregg.  I REALLY wanted to pick Tommy Hunter who has looked pretty awful despite showing decent numbers (and by that I mean ERA).  I honestly think Matusz and Patton have legitimate reasons to stay where they are, but Hunter and Gregg have been pretty questionable overall.  In reality, I wouldn't be upset if Wada replaced Hunter in the rotation and Hunter moved to the bullpen, banishing Kevin Gregg off to a place where he only ever has to pitch the 9th inning (as that's the biggest cause of his woes thus far according to him).  What do you think?