So Far, So Good

Just a few days ago the Orioles called upon their top position prospect Manny Machado.

Machado, the 3^rd overall pick in the 2010 MLB Draft, was called up to play third base for the O’s, a position where he has limited experience.

Scouts were surprised by the early call-up for the 20 year-old Machado, because his numbers in Double-A were sub-par.

So far the call-up of Machado has paid off.  Manny is hitting .417, with 2 HR, and 5 RBI. He has also provided an upgrade on defense from Wilson Betemit.

However, O’s fans should still temper their expectations. It’s not going to be a piece of cake for Manny. There is no doubt that Manny has started off great, but there will be struggles to come. It takes a while to adjust to playing every day in the Major Leagues. Other teams will also make adjustments to Machado, figuring out his weaknesses at the plate (yes, he will have some weaknesses).

I’m not saying that Machado will slump for a long period, but he is human. He will have struggles, but I’m sure he will have many successes.

Machado is going to have an extremely successful career.  But for now limit your expectations. There will be an adjustment period for Manny.

However, the call-up of Manny Machado has brought a new sense of belief to O’s fans. It shows fans that the organization is doing everything it can to put a winning product on the field.

The next two months will be exciting to watch. Hopefully Manny can make a significant contribution to the Orioles playoff run.

The O’s may not be done with big name call-ups. There could be another top prospect called up in September...

 Dylan Bundy?!

Directions to Success

I'm not going to repeat the number.  I know that I don't need to tell you how many years it's been.  That's not why I'm here, and quite frankly, I hope most of you are tired of talking/reading/thinking about it.  What I am here to do though, is pontificate on the next Orioles winning team.  No, you know what, let's get crazy and talk about the next Orioles playoff team.  Let's talk about the directions to success.  (I'm not sure that's the right 'success').

The Situation
It took, on average, 97.8 wins over the past 5 years to win the American League East.  Wow.  Let's be honest with ourselves, the next O's playoff team likely gets in via the wild card.  The average win total for the first Wild Card (WC1) over the past 5 years has been a still impressive 94 wins.  However, there will now be two wild cards, and the average win total for the second Wild Card (WC2) was just 88.6 wins.  Well there's reason for optimism there, as the total number of wins required for the WC2 is more than 5 wins less than WC1.

Who's the competition?  The next O's team to make the playoffs is realistically looking 3 or 4 years down the road.  Assuming that, the roster will likely look very different than it does today.  However, individual players are merely cogs in the system that drafted, developed, traded for and signed them.  Looking at the teams as systems, the major competitors in the American League for the O's time frame are likely to be: Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Royals, Indians, Tigers, Rangers, Angels and Mariners.

Don't get me wrong here, I wouldn't be surprised (at all) to see the tigers become less competitive in 2014 and have the Twins become a force to be reckoned with.  I'm just saying that given what we know, these teams seem to be in a strong position going forward (with emphasis on the O's projected timeline).

Your Baltimore Orioles
The O's offense is actually respectable ranking in the middle of the pack of the AL in wOBA and wRC+.  Let's assume Wieters settles in offensively to be slightly better, Machado is everything we expect and the team makes a few moves to fill in holes as they emerge.  This puts the team up in the top 5 range in the AL, plenty good to compete with the better offensive teams.  Not to mention the O's would likely have at least one impact bat just emerging (Jon Schoop) and maybe more.

Where the O's struggle is pitching.  Specifically developing young pitching, and having it stay healthy.  Let's assume Matusz has figured it out (which isn't really a safe assumption until games that matter come around).  I'm not even going to attempt to project the rotation for 2014 or 2015 right now, but let's assume that it features 3 top pitching prospects in Britton, Matusz and Bundy.  These guys will help make up the core of a rotation that, if they all develop as they once were believed to, is pretty darn good.  The rotation could feature young guys with a lot of potential like Parker Bridwell.  It might not.

Changes to 'Our System'

Wei-Yin Chen should probably work on his release point...

This is the area that the O's stand the most to gain from.  The O's have already begun revamping the player development system by introducing a long toss regimen to help strengthen pitcher's arms.  I'm a believer in long toss, and that's honestly a personal decision that you have to make I guess.  All I know is that two things benefited me as a young baseball player.  The first was keeping the same regimen over the length of a season or multiple seasons.  The second was long-tossing.  For me, it built arm strength and reinforced good mechanics.  It's incredibly difficult to long toss with poor mechanics.

Here the O's have made a conscious effort to introduce programs from the top down on both sides of the ball to have continuity across all levels of the system.  Rick Peterson and Mike Boulanger have a lot of work ahead of them but I believe that this overhaul has been long overdue.  Additionally I would be remiss if I didn't mention Brady Anderson and his emphasis on fitness, and the positive impact it will inevitably have on the players coming up through the system.

The Goal
I have an opinion on who the O's should draft when it rolls around later this summer.  In reality though, it doesn't much matter who they draft if he comes into a broken system that can't properly develop players.  I want Bundy, Machado, Schoop and everyone else to succeed.  It is through them that the O's will be successful as they will be the hot shot rookies to Matt Wieters' veteran wisdom.  We know our weaknesses, and we know which teams are likely to be good.  We know what we have in house, and we know where the opportunities are.

It's going to take a lot more than drafting good players to get to 89 wins.  It's going to take a serious focus on player development.  The top prospects of years past (Adam Loewen, Billy Rowell, Daniel Cabrera) haunt this organization.  We can't go back and fix them, so it's about time the O's started making sure that we don't live through the same nightmare twice.  I think they're finally starting to get it.

Prospects, Prospects, Prospects

Everyone knows the most important thing in real estate is location, location, location.  Well, the most important thing in baseball is often the prospects.  There is little debate over the best way to build a baseball team these days.  Prospects that come up through the system to the major leagues are cost-controlled and often provide teams with surplus production.  This is the type of production discussed in Michael Lewis' Moneyball, as the A's capitalized on performance during a player's cheapest years.  Consider that last season Matt Wieters provided the O's with $19.2 million dollars worth of production last season despite making only $452,250.

That said, the future of the Orioles sits in the minor leagues.  Keith Law ranked the Orioles right in the middle of the pack in terms of their minor league situation stating:

I see two likely superstars, one more potential superstar with lower probability … and after about seven or eight names, it goes off a cliff.

Manny Machado at the Futures Game

Those likely superstars are Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, and represent the future of the organization.  Jonathan Schoop is another bright spot in the organization, signed out of Curacao when he was 16.  Schoop has played SS, 2B and 3B in his short time in the minors.  O's fans can begin to imagine a potential double play tandem or perhaps a left side of the infield headlined by Schoop and Machado in the future.

Other young guns to look out for are Nicky Delmonico and Jason Esposito from the O's 2011 draft.  Delmonico has a higher upside and Esposito a more likely prospect to develop (which makes sense given that they were drafted out of high school and college respectively).

Dylan Bundy struck out 158 batters in 71 IP

Some pitchers to look out for are Dylan Bundy's brother Bobby, as well as Parker Bridwell.  Both guys made huge strides last season, and could enter the rotation discussion as early as September.  The future for the Orioles will likely rest in the team's ability to continue adding talent to the system, and developing it once it's there.  There's definitely some promise, but the system still has room to grow.

For more on the Orioles prospects, check out our page: Baby Birds.

Where do the O's go now?

Many O's fans were frustrated by the O's seemingly tepid interest in the Prince Fielder pursuit this offseason.  However, upon hearing the terms of his contract with Detroit, cooler heads prevailed and O's fans realized that they should thank Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette for not signing him.  That said, it does leave a hole in the heart of O's fans, as yet another offseason has passed without a major addition (so far at least).  This leaves O's fans with the following question:  What now?

To me, the O's have 2 likely directions to go (assuming we've learned anything from the past 14 years or so).  Let's tackle the better of the two options first.

Best Case Scenario

In 2012 some of the O's young pitchers show some growth and development, and give the team something to move forward from.  Young hitters continue to show annual improvement and dispel some of the critics they've had throughout their young careers.  Wieters has improved every year, and Jones has shown he's a premium talent in CF (especially if you don't put a lot of faith into his UZR ratings, which I don't).
Young guys like Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, Parker Bridwell, etc. continue to develop and are beginning to push their way into the conversation.

Heading into 2013 the O's peruse the Free Agent market and make attempts to sign impact players.  Cole Hamels and Zach Greinke are the most likely 'Aces' to be available as Matt Cain is almost assured a contract extension in San Francisco.  Perhaps Hamels and Greinke aren't cost-effective for the club and they begin to pursue potential trades.  Targets could include Tim Lincecum or Felix Hernandez, but would more likely be for younger, up-and-coming pitchers with a few years of control left.  Hitters are also an area where the team could improve, and targets could include David Wright (who could be a FA pending an option) or Joey Votto.

If the O's follow this plan to success, and some suggest this might be the path they take, it very well could follow the path that other teams like the Rangers have taken.  However, this is no slam dunk by any means, and things could go very very differently.

Worst Case Scenario


2012 is merely 2011 rehashed, and the O's young stars continue hinting that they'll never become the stars O's fans had hoped for.  Guys like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta don't develop as the organization would like and the team realizes competing in the stacked AL East, even with an extra wildcard isn't likely.

Unfortunately for O's fans, stories like this will become all too common.  The organization, realizing the window to compete comes further in the future, will have to maximize its return on the young players and get a new bunch of prospects to give it another go.  This new group will feature Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy, and will likely include stars from trades involving guys like Matusz, Tillman, Jones, Wieters and Hardy.  This is obviously not what O's fans want to see, but it's possible, so you can't ignore it as a possibility.

What's Gonna Happen?


Honestly I think it will be a little bit of both.  Some of the young guys like Wieters and Jones have show that they are developing each year and getting better.  Others have struggled.  I think that the team can put itself in position to fight for a wild card spot in 2013 or 2014 if a few things break the right way and the front office continues to try to improve the player development department.  It's not going to be easy, but the O's have young impact players, and that's the best place to start.