Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Exploring Trades and What the O’s Should Do

With less than four hours until MLB’s Trade Deadline, the O’s have yet to make a move but are currently engaging in talks with different teams.

The biggest name that the O’s have been targeting so far is SP Joe Blanton of the Philadelphia Phillies. The O’s have been in constant talks with the Phillies the past few days. The biggest issue is that the Phillies want the O’s to pay the rest of the $3M Blanton is owed the rest of the season. However, if the O’s do not want to pay the rest of Blanton’s contract, then the Phillies want a more highly-regarded prospect such as a Jonathan Schoop.

Trading Schoop for two more months of Joe Blanton would be a trade the O’s should never ever make.

With that said, trading prospects is always something teams need to look into before they make the move. Some trades can make or break a franchise.

In this column we will talk about the impact of trading prospects for major leaguers.

There have been a few deals where trading prospects for above-average or average major leaguers have to yet to have a determined outcome.

Take for example one of the trades that the Boston Red Sox made the past off-season.
Boston traded Josh Reddick and two minor leaguers for Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney. While Sweeney has done a great job filling in for Boston this season, Reddick has enjoyed a breakout season for Oakland and leads the team in the majority of offensive categories.

The jury is still out on this trade however, because Bailey has been injured, but still has the potential to be a top-5 closer.

Another trade that has yet to be determined is the deal the Reds and Padres made this off-season for Mat Latos. The Reds received SP Mat Latos from San Diego in exchange for C Yasmani Grandal, 1B/OF Yonder Alonso, SP Edinson Volquez, and RP Brad Boxberger. Latos is currently 9-3 for the Reds and is helping lead them to a playoff berth. Grandal recently strained his quad and will likely land on the DL, Alonso has had his ups and downs so far this season, Volquez has been extremely inconsistent, and Boxberger has been dominating Triple-A.

The jury is still out on this trade because five years from now Grandal, Alonso, and Boxberger could be three of the best players on the Friars.

The one thing to notice about these two trades is that they both happened last off-season. Therefore there hasn’t been enough time to judge their impact on each respective team.

It takes at least five years to determine whether a trade was “won” or “lost”.

One trade O’s fans are familiar with is the Erik Bedard trade. This could be considered one of the most lopsided trades in history.

The O’s sent Erik Bedard to the Mariners for OF Adam Jones, SP Chris Tillman, RP George Sherrill, RP Kam Mickolio, and LHP Tony Butler.

Bedard was coming off a career year and was arbitration-eligible for the first time. The O’s sold as high as they could, getting a great haul for the lefty.

Jones had played some for the Mariners, but they were never sure if he would turn out to be the player they envisioned him to be. Tillman was one of the Mariners’ top prospects and had a lot of promise. Sherrill was an older relief pitcher who the Mariners believed was not really needed. Mickolio and Butler were two pitching prospects also added to the deal.

Four years later I don’t think any GM would trade Adam Jones for Erik Bedard. At least I hope not...

It took a few years to develop, but Jones has become one of the premier players in the American League.

Besides the Bedard trade, there are so many more trades that have worked out in the favor of the team getting the prospects.

But back to the Orioles… since this is an Orioles blog and all.

If the Orioles want to trade for an impact player, they have to really think about the risks of doing it.
If the Phillies want Jonathan Schoop for Joe Blanton, we shouldn’t even come close to considering it. Schoop could end up being our future second baseman, while Blanton is a free agent five days after the World Series. I don’t think two months of Blanton is worth five years of control of Jonathan Schoop. Blanton is a homer-prone pitcher, already giving up 22 this year. As one insider said “he’s an above-average Tommy Hunter”.

I would only take Joe Blanton if the Orioles had to send a low-ceiling prospect or future utility-man, as well as the Phillies paying the $3M owed to Blanton.

Besides Blanton, it has been reported that the Orioles have been interested in Phillies OF’s Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, and Juan Pierre.

Victorino and Pence are reportedly on their way out, Victorino going to the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pence to the San Francisco Giants.

However, Pierre is still available and would be a good acquisition for the O’s. He will not cost much at all and could play left field and hit lead-off for the Orioles.

There is one thing the Orioles need to try to do at the deadline though and that is upgrade their starting rotation. If they want to continue to stay in the playoff hunt they will need to upgrade their pitching. But to upgrade their pitching they should not trade any of their top prospects.

The main point that the Orioles should stick to is that their top prospects are not available in trade. 

Making a trade that involves their top prospects could possibly help the team now, but what will it do to the team in five years?

If the Orioles do trade in the next four hours or so, they need to really calculate the risks of trading their prospects

Before making any trade, they really need to calculate the pros and cons.

Hopefully the O's can make some upgrades today!

Stayed tuned to Warehouse Worthy for news on O’s acquisitions!

No comments:

Post a Comment